August 1-7, 2024 | Issue 31 - AFRICOM/EUCOM
Meaghan Mackey, Madeline Thompson, Marta Vanti
Brantley Williams, Senior Editor
Protests Over Economic Distress in Nigeria[1]
Date: August 1, 2024
Location: Nigeria
Parties involved: Nigerian President Bola Tinubu; Nigerian government; Nigeria’s defense chief, General Christopher Musa; Nigerian security forces; Nigerian military; Nigerian protestors; Kano; Jigawa; Yobe; Katsina
The event: Nigerian security forces kill 13 protestors following the first day of protests throughout the country. Nigerians are conducting 10 days of demonstrations to highlight the high cost of living and economic distress currently besetting the country. Security forces have been using tear gas as a form of crowd control. States throughout the country, specifically in northern Nigeria, have implemented a 24-hour curfew to combat the violence and looting during these protests.[2] Musa states that the Nigerian military will step in if violence and looting persist.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Clashes between Nigerian security forces and protesters will very likely increase as protests continue throughout the country. Protestors will likely continue to loot and become violent as government curfews struggle to contain protests in the northern states of Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Katsina. Security forces will very likely amplify the use of counter-attack measures to disperse crowds, likely further increasing tensions between civilians and the Nigerian government. There is a roughly even chance that civilians will call for Tinubu and his government to step down, likely publically supporting a coup as the removal method of Tibubu from office.
Pressure from protestors throughout Nigeria will likely push the Nigerian government and Tinubu to rethink its reform efforts. There is a roughly even chance that the Nigerian government will re-implement electric subsidies after partial removal and fuel subsidies, likely to reduce the high cost of living within the country. Any government effort to reduce current economic hardships within Nigeria will likely encounter unrest from citizens and a lack of confidence in Tinubu and government officials.
Date: August 5, 2024
Location: United Kingdom
Parties involved: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer; UK; UK protestors; UK police forces; social media platforms, Instagram, X, Gab; migrants; asylum seekers; far-right groups
The event: British Prime Minister Starmer has arranged an urgent security meeting in response to the weeklong civil unrest and violent protests regarding the presence of migrants and asylum seekers throughout the UK. Protestors clashed with UK police forces using various weapons, including Molotov cocktails, bricks, and glass bottles while targeting hotels that are housing migrants and asylum seekers.[4] Around 375 arrests have occurred throughout the weekend, with some of the arrests being far-right activists. Following the emergency meeting, Starmer claims he will arrange a “standing army” of specialist police to counter the protests.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
Protestors will very likely target Muslims and places of worship, such as mosques throughout the UK, likely increasing the need for additional security and law enforcement presence. Increasing violence and hate crimes throughout the UK will very likely require local law enforcement to increase patrols, surveillance, and security within communities to ensure the safety of all citizens. Protestors will very likely target mosques and local religious sites using Molotov cocktails and improvised weaponry such as bricks and axes, likely increasing the risk of infrastructure damage, fires, and injuries. Local Islamic religious organizations and law enforcement agencies will very likely work together to mitigate future violence directed at the Muslim community.
Media and social media platforms such as Instagram, X, and Gab will likely be exploited by far-right demonstrators inciting violence against migrants and asylum seekers throughout the UK. Far-right groups will very likely use media attention on the protests to manipulate social media algorithms on mainstream platforms such as Instagram and X to project extremist narratives and encourage social media users to engage in demonstrations and violent actions offline. Alternative social media platforms, such as Gab, will likely be utilized by far-right groups to coordinate further demonstrations against minority groups and law enforcement.
The role of social media in exacerbating activities that will likely lead to violence is likely to come under increased scrutiny from multiple stakeholders, including civilians, politicians, lobbyists, and businesses. Violent incidents and civil unrest will likely increase as misinformation spreads on platforms like Instagram, X, and Gab. The rapid dissemination of unverified information will likely pose a challenge for social media companies, which will likely face pressure from governments such as the UK to implement more stringent content monitoring practices. The increased attention on these social media platforms will likely lead to public debates over the balance between free speech and the prevention of hate speech and misinformation.
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[1] Protests, generated by a third party database.
[2] Nigerians hit with 24-hour curfews amid protests, BBC, June 2024,
[3] Rights group says security forces have killed 9 as Nigeria protests over hardship enter a second day, AP News, https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-protests-74771061285bcd3b8260edfb4044610f
[4] U.K. far-right riots spread, triggering emergency security meeting, NBC, August 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/uk-starmer-cobra-security-far-right-riots-protests-spread-migration-rcna165116
[5] UK prime minister talks of ‘standing army’ of police to deal with rioting across Britain, AP News, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/britain-riots-asylum-seekers-violence-a391b4513c41fe4de3806b28ee0c1740