Mercedes F. Scheible, Jigyasa Maloo, Jacob Robison, Sabrina Bernardo
Finley Thomas, Clémence Van Damme, Editors; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
December 31, 2024
Capitol Building[1]
Summary of Assessment
Concerns about political violence will likely grow as Certification Day on January 6, 2025, approaches. Threats against government officials, public gatherings, and critical infrastructure, such as the US Capitol and the White House, will likely escalate. The certification will very likely attract far-right and far-left groups, lone actors, and individuals motivated by political grievances, who will likely use the patriotic symbolism of the event as justification for political violence and confrontations. The historical significance of the January 6, 2021, Insurrection likely increases the potential for politically motivated violence in the Washington DC metropolitan area, particularly the Capitol. Attackers will likely target government facilities due to their connection to past grievances. Extremist actors will likely exploit public events related to the 2024 elections, including the Inaugural Peace Ball for symbolic attacks. High-profile gatherings will almost certainly face secondary risks from crowd management challenges and disruptions caused by online disinformation campaigns. Ongoing protests at the DC Central Detention Facility, where authorities hold participants of the January 6 Insurrection, will likely intensify as the certification approaches. Online extremist narratives will likely increase and will likely lead to targeted violence toward government officials, public gatherings, critical infrastructure, and the DC Central Detention Facility. Federal and local law enforcement agencies will likely implement increased security measures to diminish the risk of missed threats.
Context of Concern
On January 6, 2021, during the certification of the 2020 election, President Donald Trump's supporters, including far-right groups, stormed the US Capitol to try to block Joe Biden's victory. After, nine people died including five police officers, and injuring about 150 officers.[2] Federal authorities have arrested nearly 1,500 people for the insurrection, with 894 pleading guilty and 186 convicted at trial.[3]
The Select Committee Investigating the January 6 Capitol attack released its final report on December 22, 2022. Among the 17 findings, the Select Committee disclosed five key points about how law enforcement and intelligence agencies' handled the Insurrection.
Intelligence agencies and law enforcement detected and communicated warnings of potential violence including Proud Boys and Oath Keepers.
No evidence supported the involvement of Antifa and left-wing groups “to any material extent with the attack.”[4]
The intelligence did not fully anticipate the extent of Trump’s plan, Rudolph Giuliani’s, and others to overturn the election results.
The US Capitol Police appeared unprepared for the escalation of violence.
The committee found that miscommunication by Pentagon civilian leaders likely delayed assistance to the Capitol. It was determined that Trump never ordered the dispatch of the National Guard or any other federal support to the Capitol.[5]
On December 17, 2024, Barry Loudermilk, Chairman of the Committee on House Administration's Oversight Subcommittee released a new report, criticizing the investigations and findings of the January 6, 2022 report.[6] The report claimed the Select Committee lacked authority, concealed evidence, had partisan motivation, and targeted former Representative Liz Cheney for her involvement. It also outlined the failure of the Department of Defense (DOD), the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), and the Capitol Police.
Since the Insurrection, the Capitol Police has expanded to more than 2000 sworn officers, with over 350 providing operational and administrative support.[7] The Biden administration passed the Capitol Police Emergency Assistance Act of 2021, allowing the Capitol Police to request the National Guard assistance in emergencies without prior approval.[8] Recommendations included expanding training protocols such as joint exercises with the National Guard, crowd control preparation, and less-than-lethal exercises. Increase in equipment for officers, enhanced internal and external intelligence sharing, upgraded surveillance technology, and recruitment efforts. Measures include providing peer support programs for trauma and stress, along with expanded wellness services for the officers.[9]
On January 6, 2025, the counting and certification of electoral votes for the 2024 election will take place with the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) designating the event as a “National Special Security Event” (NSSE).[10] This designation will guarantee the US Secret Service (USSS) to assume the role of “the lead agency for planning, coordinating, and implementing security operations at NSSEs” [11] under Title 18 USC 3056 (e) and Presidential Policy Directive 22 (2013). In a statement, the United States Capitol Police Chief Tom Manger said, “National Special Security Event designation will further strengthen our work to protect the Members of Congress and the legislative process.”[12]
Potential Vulnerabilities
Certification Day will likely culminate in politically motivated violence, with demonstrations aimed at disrupting the process. These demonstrations will likely involve illegal activity such as blocking of traffic, trespassing, and vandalism of property, serving as expressions of opposition to the inauguration. The potential for political violence will likely increase, drawing on historical precedents such as the assassination attempt on Trump and the fourth anniversary of the Insurrection, both serving as rallying points on Certification Day. Mobilization by far-right and far-left groups, lone actors, and individuals with political grievances as motives will likely emerge as a significant security threat in public spaces near the US Capitol during the electoral certification process. Demonstrations will very likely attract large crowds, and the charged atmosphere will likely heighten risks of harassment, verbal altercations, physical confrontations, and clashes between political groups. The presence of firearms among demonstrators will likely exacerbate these risks in public spaces.
Threats against government officials, congressional members, and lawmakers will likely escalate, particularly for those opposed to the election result. The presence of those with controversial viewpoints in public places will likely draw unwanted attention from threat actors. Threats will likely manifest as online hate, acts of intimidation, and swatting attacks, likely requiring more of law enforcement’s time and resources. Members of Congress traveling to Washington for the certification have a roughly even chance of encountering risks during transit, at airports, on flights, or en route to the Capitol, such as attempts of violent acts against them.
Escalating rhetoric on social media platforms across the political spectrum will likely deepen polarization ahead of Certification Day. Algorithms designed to prioritize content on social media platforms through likes, comments, and shares, along with recently viewed posts and trends, will very likely contribute to disseminating misinformation and disinformation of controversial and divisive posts. These posts will very proliferate as social media users share and like content aligning with their preconceived biases. This propagation of stigmatizing narratives against opposing viewpoints, government officials, and lawmakers will very likely erode public trust.
The US Capitol Police will likely face significant challenges in responding effectively to threats on Certification Day due to the loss of 358 officers since 2020. Staffing shortages and morale issues, fueled by a 400% increase in threats against members of Congress, will likely heighten stress levels among remaining officers.[13] It will likely delay response times and impair decision-making under high-pressure circumstances. Certification Day will likely strain law enforcement, including Capitol Police, the USSS, and other federal agencies, given the heightened threat perception and hinder their ability to manage large-scale security threats. Law enforcement will likely have to prepare for a broad range of scenarios from managing peaceful demonstrators to curbing potential violent acts. Law enforcement will likely face challenges in maintaining the physical security of the area including crowd control and securing access points. Threat actors will likely exploit potential vulnerabilities in the Capitol's IT infrastructure and systems utilized for threat monitoring, surveillance, and management. Such vulnerabilities will likely compromise law enforcement’s ability to identify and track individual and group attempts to cause disruption.
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election, individuals and groups with opposed political ideologies will likely resort to violence to express their discontent with the results. Far-right, far-left groups, lone actors, and individuals with political grievances will likely initiate the organization of riots, likely resulting in an escalation of violence.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that local and federal law enforcement agencies, in conjunction with the Capitol Police and USSS, devise a comprehensive strategy for security status information effectively.
Local and federal law enforcement agencies, in conjunction with the Capitol Police and USSS, should establish a standardized protocol for risk assessment to identify and mitigate security vulnerabilities.
DHS should implement emergency response plans to address potential unrest in the DC area with particular attention given to high-risk areas, including the Capitol, large-scale public events, and key transportation hubs.
Authorities should develop evacuation plans for the area in case of escalating violence. Public announcements should ensure that residents are familiar with the evacuation protocols and prepared to act if needed.
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should collaborate with community leaders to organize workshops that promote conflict resolution among organizers of protests and participants.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) should strengthen its defense capabilities against potential cyberattacks on Certification Day to protect critical infrastructure and information systems.
Intelligence agencies, such as the FBI, should partner with social media companies to establish robust monitoring and takedown procedures for extremist content. This should include real-time monitoring and detection of hate speech, calls for violence, misinformation, and disinformation on social media platforms.
Residents of Washington DC should closely follow announcements from authorities to stay informed about security measures and advisories for Certification Day.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] US Capitol, generated by a third party database
[2] These Are the People Who Died in Connection With the Capitol Riot,The New York Times, January 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/us/politics/jan-6-capitol-deaths.html
[3] 43 Months Since the Jan. 6 Attack on the Capitol, US Department of Justice, August 2024, https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/43-months-jan-6-attack-capitol
[4] Final Report of the Select Committee, The Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol, 2022, https://january6th-benniethompson.house.gov/report-executive-summary
[5] Key takeaways from the Jan. 6 committee report summary, PBS, December 2022, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-key-findings-and-criminal-referrals-from-the-jan-6-committee-report-summary
[6] Chairman Loudermilk Releases Second January 6, 2021 Report, Committee on House Administration, December 2024, https://cha.house.gov/2024/12/chairman-loudermilk-releases-second-january-6-2021-report
[7] Mission & History, US Capitol Police, December 2024, https://www.uscp.gov/the-department/our-mission#:~:text=Currently%2C%20the%20Department%20has%20an,provide%20operational%20and%20administrative%20support.
[8] Biden signs law streamlining Capitol Police emergency response after Guard delays on Jan. 6, NBC News, December 2021, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/biden-signs-law-streamlining-capitol-police-emergency-response-after-guard-n1286489
[9] After the Attack: The Future of the U.S. Capitol Police, US Capitol Police, July 2021, https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/after-attack-future-us-capitol-police
[10] 2025 Counting and Certification of Electoral Votes Designated a National Special Security Event, US Secret Service, September 2024, https://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/releases/2024/09/2025-counting-and-certification-electoral-votes-designated-national
[11] National Special Security Events Credentialing, US Secret Service, December 2024, https://www.secretservice.gov/protection/events/credentialing
[12] Additional security will be in place for the Jan. 6, 2025 certification of the presidential vote, US Government Executive, September 2024, https://www.govexec.com/management/2024/09/additional-security-will-be-place-jan-6-2025-certification-presidential-vote/399498/
[13] U.S Capitol Police still face understaffing and low morale, chief says, NBC News, May 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/us-capitol-police-still-faces-understaffing-low-morale-chief-says-rcna84686