Finley Thomas, Analyst
Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
EU and British Flags[1]
Introduction
The rapid transformation of the social media platform X under Elon Musk’s ownership is raising significant concerns about its role in disseminating misinformation, disinformation, and shaping public opinion.[2] Unlike misinformation, which involves the unintentional spread of false information,[3] disinformation refers to the deliberate spread of falsehoods with the intent to influence public opinion.[4] Recently, the platform has faced increased scrutiny over claims of electoral interference, with reports suggesting Musk is likely to be leveraging his large following to amplify support for right-wing political parties such as Reform UK in the United Kingdom,[5] and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the upcoming German elections.[6] Critics are questioning the methods he allegedly employs to amplify these assertions, including claims of online influence and disinformation threats.[7]
This digital investigation documents these allegations, focusing on Musk’s possible role and the use of X in attempting to influence democratic processes. It will report evidence from Musk's official account and other verified “blue-check” users echoing these assertions, assess the potential impact on past and upcoming European elections, and provide actionable recommendations to prevent social media misuse. These findings will play an important role in developing strategies to detect and deter the exploitation of platforms such as X for spreading misinformation and manipulating democratic outcomes.
Context
Following Elon Musk’s acquisition of X in 2022, the platform underwent significant structural and operational changes. Musk’s stated goal was to achieve political neutrality, aiming to address both far-left and far-right perspectives equally.[8] Operational changes included the addition of X Premium, enabling users to obtain verified status and boost the visibility of their posts through a subscription model. Additionally, the launch of the community notes features shifted content moderation responsibilities, allowing users to identify and highlight misleading information instead of relying solely on platform administrators.[9] However, these changes have raised concerns about the potential for increased manipulation of discourse on X, incentivized through financial gain of ad-revenue sharing.
The introduction of a subscription-based verification system amplified concerns about the spread of disinformation. Verified accounts are often seen as more credible by users,[10] thus increasing the reach and impact of misleading content as this information is more likely to be internalized. As these verified accounts gain more visibility, they can more effectively influence public opinion.[11] Research found that 23% of Ukraine-related tweets, 30% of vaccine tweets, and 28% of climate-related tweets from verified accounts contained false or misleading information.[12] X’s verification model also amplifies the intensity of polarization on the platform through the increased reach of verified accounts, increasing the number of echo chambers on the application.[13] This means countries such as France had considered banning candidates from subscribing to X’s verification system ahead of the 2024 French elections due to its worries in post visibility.[14] The European Commission has also identified evidence of malicious actors using X Premium to mislead users, resulting in a preliminary determination that X violated the Digital Services Act in July 2024.[15]
Social media platforms, such as X, play a significant role in the dissemination of information, amplification of narratives, and shaping of public dialogue.[16] Engagement-based algorithms often prioritize emotionally charged or divisive content,[17] accelerating the spread of disinformation.[18] Misinformation and disinformation campaigns, which can originate from both foreign and domestic sources, are often seen relying on social media to manipulate public opinion during critical events, such as elections.[19] Electoral periods are specifically targeted because of their vulnerability, as misinformation campaigns capitalize on the heightened emotional and cognitive engagement of the electorate by amplifying polarizing narratives to achieve its desired political objectives.[20]
Critics accuse Musk of spreading and amplifying election-related misinformation on his platform X, particularly during the 2024 US election. Themes such as immigration and voting became central concerns, particularly due to posts alleging that "illegal aliens" were voting in the 2024 US election and that Democrats were supposedly importing immigrants to secure votes.[21] Critics highlight his prominent presence on social media, where his political posts have garnered 17.1 billion views since endorsing Donald Trump in July 2024.[22] Research has shown that critics rated at least 87 of his election-related posts as false or misleading by fact-checkers, which in turn accumulated two billion views.[23] Information shared by high-profile individuals significantly impacts public perception, especially among young adults.[24] The reach of misinformation often outweighs the ability of fact-checkers and content moderators to address the spread of false information in real-time.[25] Research has also proved this to be the case with community notes, as none of the 87 posts Musk engaged with or posted on X, despite being rated false or misleading by fact-checkers, included a Community Note.[26]
Efforts to manipulate political discourse through misinformation and disinformation are closely linked to attempts to influence foreign elections.[27] The UK’s National Security Bill defines foreign interference as efforts to sow discord, manipulate discourse, discredit politics, bias policy development, and threaten national interests. Similarly, the European Parliament describes foreign interference as the illegitimate influence of foreign powers on democratic and political processes within the EU and its Member States. These definitions, introduced in 2024, highlight the growing concerns surrounding the use of digital platforms to influence public opinion and electoral outcomes.
Musk faces accusations of foreign interference,[28] stemming from his endorsements and alleged misinformed criticisms of European political parties and figures. In the UK, he expressed opposition to the Labour Party and suggested that King Charles III dissolve parliament.[29] However, under the current terms of the constitutional monarchy, King Charles III can only dissolve parliament at the prime minister's request, with only the prime minister holding the authority to determine the timing of a new election.[30] Musk also claimed that Labour leader Keir Starmer was complicit in child sexual exploitation during his tenure at the Crown Prosecution Service and should face charges.[31] He later called for Starmer's safeguarding minister, Jess Phillips, to be imprisoned,[32] referring to her as a "rape genocide apologist."[33] Phillips later criticized the statement, describing it as dangerous and disinformation.[34] Musk has also voiced recent support for the right-wing party Reform UK, but later called for its leader, Nigel Farage, to step down.[35]
In Germany, the German government has accused Musk of election influence,[36] with Chancellor Olaf Scholz calling his comments intrusive after Musk called for his resignation in December 2024.[37] He has since endorsed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of the February elections,[38] publishing an op-ed and hosting an interview with Alice Weidel on X in which he stated he was strongly recommending people vote for AfD.[39] As a result, more than 60 German and Austrian academic organizations say they will leave the messaging platform X.[40] The German government has also stated they are considering leaving the platform due to concerns regarding agitating and polarizing algorithms.[41] Other European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, have also expressed concern about the influence of powerful individuals on public discourse and diplomacy stating his actions amounted to directly intervening in elections.[42]
Impact Analysis / Threat Assessment
Societal Impacts
As misinformation-driven political rhetoric spreads on social media platforms like X, its divisive nature will likely prompt some individuals to seek alternatives perceived as more politically neutral, like Bluesky. Users whose political views align closely with the amplified rhetoric will very likely remain active on such platforms, likely increasing their engagement with politically charged posts from like-minded individuals. This dynamic will almost certainly foster an echo chamber[43] effect on these online communities, reinforcing political divisiveness on social media and further polarizing left and right-leaning users.
The proliferation of politically charged misinformation will likely undermine trust in the credibility of online information. This erosion will likely deepen mistrust in news and commentary, including mainstream media, as users struggle to distinguish accurate information from the growing influx of misleading tweets. Fact-checking efforts, like Community Notes, will likely be overwhelmed due to the increase of false posts compared to the number of individuals fact-checking them, very likely allowing amplified misinformation to go unchecked. This environment will likely fuel calls for stricter regulation of digital platforms to address perceived biases, likely exacerbating debates over free speech and censorship.
European Election Impacts
The growing use of X to amplify political rhetoric and disinformation will likely fuel the rising success of far-right parties across Europe. As online discourse becomes increasingly polarized, individuals will likely encounter extreme viewpoints, particularly those promoted by far-right parties that capitalize on populist and nationalist themes. Algorithms amplifying divisive content will very likely boost far-right narratives, normalizing extremist views and appealing to undecided or disengaged voters. This effect will likely shift voter support toward right-wing parties, with a roughly even chance of increasing their votes in upcoming elections.
Allegations of election interference and influence will likely deepen public skepticism toward government institutions and the electoral process, likely weakening voter confidence in upcoming European elections. As high-profile figures and verified accounts amplify political rhetoric, users who rely on such applications for news will likely become further distrustful of the government, media, and democratic systems. The dissemination of false narratives will likely drive conspiracy theories and fear-mongering regarding free speech, likely escalating political tensions between voters of differing ideologies and their governments.Disinformation amplification and political rhetoric online are likely to intensify political polarization across Europe, presenting significant challenges in addressing critical issues across borders, like migrant smuggling. As foreign and domestic actors exploit these platforms, citizens will likely become entrenched in their ideological beliefs while polarization takes effect. The growing political divide will likely deepen polarization on contentious topics like immigration, pushing individuals toward more extreme positions. This shift will likely boost support for parties emphasizing these issues, like Reform UK and the AfD. Growing polarization will likely make it harder to find common ground and build consensus on key policy matters.
Technological Impacts
Algorithmic amplification of divisive or emotionally charged content will likely worsen the spread of misinformation during elections by prioritizing sensational posts that keep users on X. Users drawn to such content will likely interact with posts that confirm their beliefs, prompting algorithms to surface similar material more frequently. False claims about voter fraud or fabricated endorsements by public figures will very likely gain traction, increasing the visibility of politically polarizing narratives. The amplification of such misinformation and disinformation by prominent accounts, including those with X Premium subscriptions, will likely escalate. As these posts gain widespread attention, opposing political factions will likely interpret the promotion of rival narratives as deliberate bias, further eroding trust in platforms perceived as politically neutral.
Diplomatic Impacts
Statements or endorsements by influential foreign individuals like Elon Musk on sensitive political matters will likely appear to interfere with the governments or populations of the affected European countries. Elon Musk's involvement in European political debates will likely strain global diplomatic relations by fueling accusations of meddling and undermining mutual trust between nations. This perception of interference will likely provoke strong responses, including policy shifts aimed at countering the perceived intrusion, public condemnations, or retaliatory rhetoric. As tensions rise, nations will likely adopt protectionist policies and limit foreign political engagement, likely leading to a more fragmented and polarized global landscape.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that the UK and EU policymakers revise and strengthen laws targeting the dissemination of misinformation and disinformation, including possible amendments to the UK’s Online Safety Bill and the EU’s Digital Services Act to curb foreign influence.
Lawmakers should revise laws regulating the funding of political parties by external entities to limit the influence of overseas-led campaigns.
Social media platforms like X should strengthen verification for premium services to prevent misuse of features like reply prioritization and ad revenue sharing in disinformation campaigns.
Governments and social media platforms should establish international agreements to share intelligence on foreign influence operations, enabling faster identification and removal of harmful content.
The UK’s Department for Digital Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and European Commission Directorate-General for Communication Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT) should launch digital literacy campaigns to educate young voters, and older, vulnerable populations on identifying disinformation and recognizing tactics used by foreign actors on platforms like X.
The UK and European governments should impose strict limits on political advertisements funded by foreign entities, requiring platforms to verify and disclose the origins of all political ad campaigns for full transparency.
The UK and European governments should increase funding and support for third-party fact-checking organizations, such as Full Fact in the UK and Correctiv in Germany, to monitor content on platforms like X and debunk misinformation before it spreads widely.
The UK and European governments should remain vigilant about the potential escalation of left-wing foreign influence in response to recent developments involving right-wing influence.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] EU and Britain, generated by a third party database
[2] Elon Musk Is Spreading Election Misinformation, but X’s Fact Checkers Are Long Gone, The New York Times, January 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/25/us/politics/elon-musk-election-misinformation-x-twitter.html
[3] Misinformation is the unintentional spread of false information by people who believe it to be true.
[4] Disinformation is the deliberate dissemination of false information by individuals who are aware that it is untrue.
[5] @ElonMusk, X, December 31, 2024, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1873990842949808156
[6] @ElonMusk, X, December 20, 2024, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869986946031988780
[7] The Musk threat to European democracy, Financial Times, January 2025, https://www.ft.com/content/f1de2d4f-a927-4d74-a667-4946b8d5298e
[8] @ElonMusk, X, April 27, 2024, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1519415674111672325
[9] Community Notes is a feature on the platform X that allows users to add context to posts, such as fact-checks
[10] Does the verified badge of social media matter? The perspective of trust transfer theory, Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing, 2023, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/jrim-10-2023-0339/full/html#:~:text=The%20results%20show%20that%20a,negative%20attitude%20toward%20commercial%20postings.
[11] Trust, Media Credibility, Social Ties, and the Intention to Share towards Information Verification in an Age of Fake News, National Library of Medicine, 2022, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8869166/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[12] Twitter Blue profiles are already a hotbed of misinformation, The Company, 2022, https://www.fastcompany.com/90829546/twitter-blue-profiles-are-already-a-hotbed-of-misinformation
[13] Echo chamber formation sharpened by priority users, Munster Technological University, 2024, https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.09358
[14] @CNCCFP_OFFICIEL, X, July 13, 2023, https://x.com/cnccfp_officiel/status/1679502951360888834 (Translated by X)
[15] Commission sends preliminary findings to X for breach of the Digital Services Act, European Commission, 2024, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_3761
[16] The Global Disinformation Order, University of Oxford, 2019, https://demtech.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2019/09/CyberTroop-Report19.pdf
[17] Engagement, User Satisfaction, and the Amplification of Divisive Content on Social Media, Columbia University, 2024, https://knightcolumbia.org/content/engagement-user-satisfaction-and-the-amplification-of-divisive-content-on-social-media
[18] Disinformation: sources, spread and impact, UK Parliament, 2024, https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/POST-PN-0719/POST-PN-0719.pdf
[19] EU investigates TikTok over alleged Russian meddling in Romanian vote, BBC, 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2v13nz202o
[20] Russian disinformation campaigns amplify divisive narratives ahead of elections, ISD, 2024, https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-in-the-news/russian-disinformation-campaigns-amplify-divisive-narratives-ahead-of-elections/
[21] Investigating Musk's far-fetched claim about Democrats importing voters, BBC, 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czd5l0d3794o
[22] Musks Political Posts, Center for Countering Digital Hate, November 2024, https://counterhate.com/research/musk-political-posts-x/
[23] Ibid.
[24] The celebrity influence: do people really care what they think?, Taylor and Francis, May 2014, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19392397.2014.925408
[25] ‘It’s overwhelming’: On the frontline to combat coronavirus ‘fake news’, Politico, April 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-fake-news-fact-checkers-google-facebook-germany-spain-bosnia-brazil-united-states/
[26] Musk’s Political Posts, Center for Digital Hate, November 2024, https://counterhate.com/research/musk-political-posts-x/
[27] Foreign Interference: National Security Bill factsheet, UK Government Home Office, 2024, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-security-bill-factsheets/foreign-interference-national-security-bill-factsheet
[28] Elon Musk picked to head up Trump's new efficiency department - as Fox News host chosen as defence secretary, Sky News, November, 2024, https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-confirms-elon-musk-in-his-cabinet-13253406
[29] @ElonMusk, X, January 3, 2025, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875044847691923498
[30] The King and the dissolution of Parliament for a general election, House of Commons Library, 2024, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/the-king-and-the-dissolution-of-parliament-for-a-general-election/
[31] What is Starmer's record on prosecuting grooming gangs?, BBC, 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgn2wvxx5qo
[32] @ElonMusk, X, January 1, 2025, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1874579725924061364
[33] @ElonMusk, X, January 3, 2025, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875145167633887358
[34] @Elon Musk, X, January 7, 2025, Musk's 'disinformation' endangering me, says Phillips
[35] @ElonMusk, X, January 5, 2025, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875904634419859928
[36] Germany accuses Elon Musk of trying to influence its election, Reuters, December 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-says-elon-musk-trying-exert-influence-over-german-election-2024-12-30/
[37] Elon Musk says German chancellor should resign after attack at Christmas market, Reuters, December 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/elon-musk-gives-nod-german-far-right-party-election-looms-2024-12-20/
[38] Backlash builds as Elon Musk endorses Germany’s far right, Politico, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-endorses-germanys-far-right/
[39] Elon Musk's AfD broadcast cleared up any doubts over his attitude to Germany's far right, Sky News, January 2025, https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musks-afd-broadcast-cleared-up-any-doubts-over-his-attitude-to-germanys-far-right-13286242
[40] German institutions depart X, a day after Musk's Weidel talk, DW, 2025, https://www.dw.com/en/german-institutions-depart-x-a-day-after-musks-weidel-talk/a-71266331
[41] Ibid.
[42] Europe leaders criticise Musk attacks, BBC, January 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmngpvv08lo
[43] An echo chamber is a setting where individuals are exposed solely to information and opinions that align with and strengthen their existing beliefs.