May 23- 29, 2024 | Issue 21 - SOUTHCOM
Kiara Alexander, Enrico Dal Cin, Martina Pagani, Joseph Polland, Marta Vanti,
Christina Valdez, Editor; Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
FARC Dissidents Taking Position on A Mountain to Attack A Police Station in Silvia[1]
Date: May 23, 2024
Location: Silvia, Cauca State, Colombia
Parties involved: Colombian President Gustavo Petro; Colombia; Colombian Armed Forces; Colombian Special Forces; Silvia police forces; Silvia residents; Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents; Central General Staff (EMC);
The event: On Thursday night, FARC dissidents attacked a police station in Silvia. The dissidents took position on top of a mountain to fire rounds at the building. There were no injuries reported. This attack comes after a security council meeting with President Petro to address rising concerns regarding escalating violence in the Cauca Department and the deployment of Special Forces within the region.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The EMC attack in Silvia is likely a response to the escalating conflict by the Colombian state through the increased Armed Forces deployment in Cauca. This attack is almost certainly intended to deliver a message of resolve on behalf of the EMC, implying that perpetrating violence will not deter them. Future EMC attacks will likely target the Colombian government in Cauca, such as police or municipal buildings, likely perceiving it as a softer target than the Armed Forces.
FARC dissidents will likely continue to engage in targeted attacks in Cauca, relying on guerilla tactics against local authorities and armed forces if forced to engage the growing contingent. The attack in Silvia likely allowed the FARC to attack from a mountain, facilitating their elevated position and subsequent retreat for future attacks. FARC will likely rely on these actions to avoid a confrontation with government troops, likely relying on ambush tactics. FARC will likely intimidate the local population, to avoid providing any information resembling intelligence to the Cauca government forces.
The local Silvia population is very likely experiencing insecurity following the FARC’s attack. Constant violence in the area will likely push local populations to migrate to safer towns or regions to escape the danger posed by the group. The remaining population in the area will very likely require assistance from possible injuries sustained during attacks and humanitarian aid such as food and supplies from the government and neighboring regions.
Date: May 26, 2024
Location: Solís García Stadium, Lurigancho-Chosica, Peru
Parties involved: Lurigancho-Chosica district government officials; criminals issuing threats; Lurigancho-Chosica Mayor Oswaldo Vargas; Peruvian National Police (PNP)
The event: On the morning of May 26, 2024, a death threat targeting Mayor Vargas was found in one of the hygienic services inside the Solís García stadium. The threat message marks the latest in a series of threats against local government officials. A few months prior, a district councilor found an explosive device at the door of his house. Members of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) arrived at the stadium to verify the threat and initiated an investigation. Mayor Vargas has expressed concern for his family’s safety and has decided to enhance security measures around his personal and family environments.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The recent threats against Mayor Vargas will likely be part of a broader campaign to destabilize the local government. It likely indicates a concerning trend of organized attempts to undermine governance in Lurigancho-Chosica. This escalation will likely increase social unrest and challenges for law enforcement, necessitating proactive measures such as enhanced intelligence gathering, increased security for officials, and community engagement initiatives to address underlying systemic issues, including corruption, lack of economic opportunities, and weak law enforcement, is essential to maintain public trust in democratic institutions and ensure long-term stability.
There is a roughly even chance that the criminal actors issuing these threats will attack Mayor Vargas. The threats almost certainly indicate an established attack plan to cause dismay in the region. The increased security measures will very likely deter actors from conducting an attack against Vargas for the next few months. It is likely other governmental officials in the region will face an escalated threat of risk if further security measures are not put into place to ensure the safety of all officials.
[1] Sniper Rifle, by Thomas Tucker on Unsplash
[2] Police station in Silvia, Cauca, was attacked by members of the FARC dissidents, Infobae, May 2024, https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2024/05/24/estacion-de-policia-en-silvia-cauca-fue-atacada-por-integrantes-de-las-disidencias-de-las-farc/ (Translated by Google)
[3] Amenazan a alcalde de Lurigancho-Chosica: delincuentes le dejan mensaje de muerte en estadio, elcomercio, May 2024, https://elcomercio.pe/lima/alcalde-de-lurigancho-chosica-es-amenazado-con-mensaje-de-muerte-delincuentes-dejaron-mensaje-estadio-solis-garcia-policial-ultimas-noticia/?ref=ecr (translated by Google Translate)
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