Nicholas Novak, Léonard Vacelet–Revolio, Weapons and Tactics
Alice Cian, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
September 17, 2024
Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade Still Shot[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to government and security agencies globally regarding the use of so-called “Dragon Drones” on the frontline in Ukraine. The Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade posted a video on Telegram showcasing the FPV (First Person View) drone pouring a thermite mixture made of aluminum powder and iron oxide onto Russian trench lines.[2] Moscow City Duma deputy Andrey Medvedev posted a video of Russian drone pilots using their version of Dragon Drones on Ukrainian positions.[3] Threat actors around the world such as ISIS[4], cartels[5], and other insurgent groups that are already using drone warfare will VERY LIKELY adapt their tactics to the new technology.
CTG is on HIGH alert for the spread of Dragon Drone technology to terrorist organizations globally. The use of Dragon Drones in Ukraine VERY LIKELY indicates threat actors are studying and implementing this new technology in combat. Terrorist groups such as ISIS, Hamas, drug cartels, and others will VERY LIKELY analyze footage posted on social media sites by Ukrainian and Russian channels, and will LIKELY utilize Dragon Drones against military and civilian infrastructure in their respective regions. The proliferation of Dragon Drones will LIKELY inspire terrorist groups to innovate new drone technologies.
On September 4, 2024, the Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade posted footage on Telegram of a Dragon Drone flying in a straight path and dropping the incendiary mixture along Russian trench lines concealed by tree canopies.[6] Ukraine has dropped gravity thermite munitions on Russian positions as far back as February 2024, however, this is the first time the mixture has been poured from a drone.[7] Thermite mixtures typically burn at temperatures up to 4,000 degrees Fahrenheit (2,200 degrees Celsius). The main use of the Dragon Drone is as a defoliant, a chemical used to burn concealment such as tree canopies, shrubbery, and camouflage netting, while the second intended use is to inflict psychological damage. The thermite can melt certain metals such as metal roofs, soft-skinned vehicles, and artillery pieces. In a separate video posted to Telegram on September 7, the Ukrainian 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion drone pilots use the Dragon Drone to burn foliage in and around Russian trench lines.[8] This footage showcases the effects of the thermite mixture on foliage, igniting fires and producing smoke around the Russian trenches. A few days later, Russian soldiers began using their version of the Dragon Drone on Ukrainian positions. Moscow City Duma deputy Andrei Medvedev posted a video of Russian drone pilots from Omut Group dropping a thermite mixture from a drone on Ukrainian trenches, however, the effects do not seem as significant.[9]
Terrorist groups such as ISIS, Hamas, drug cartels, and other armed groups will almost certainly analyze the use of Dragon Drones, and likely adapt this technology for their own use. Groups such as ISIS will likely implement their own version of the dragon drone as a psychological warfare tool while continuing to use FPV drones, IEDs, and suicide bombers to destroy critical infrastructure and kill civilians. They will likely use the Dragon Drone on highly populated civilian gatherings such as festivals and places of worship with the intent of inflicting psychological trauma on civilians and first responders. They will likely use this tactic in a propaganda effort to gain as much media attention as possible to maximize their outreach. ISIS will likely share footage of the use of this technology online, very likely accelerating the spread of Dragon Drone-type weaponry to other threat actors globally.
The use of thermite drones will very likely increase the lethal and psychological risks Ukrainian troops deployed near the frontlines face, and will very likely affect tactics on the battlefield. Russia will likely use thermite drones ahead of assaults on Ukrainian positions, likely burning Ukrainian machine gunner’s arcs of fire to conceal the Russian advance. The use of drones fitted with thermite munitions will very likely pose major threats to lightly armored units and infantrymen, likely increasing the casualties in trenches on the frontline and damage to equipment and ammunition stocks. The spread of fire and smoke thermite drones cause will likely provoke chaos among opposing troops, disorganizing potential maneuvers, and diminishing Ukrainian defensive capabilities to respond to a Russian attack. In combination with surveillance and target-identification drones, the Russian army will likely use these explosive devices to locate and target concealed Ukrainian army positions, exposing troops to potentially more destructive strikes. The use of thermite drones will likely inflict psychological trauma on soldiers, very likely resulting in lower morale. Russian officials and soldiers will likely increase psychological warfare activities, such as the dissemination of videos on social media showing the potential consequences and damage of using thermite drones, seeking to destabilize and induce fear among Ukrainian soldiers.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that intelligence agencies monitor online forums that focus on drone modifications to prevent the spread of Dragon Drone technology.
Intelligence agencies and law enforcement services should monitor actors acquiring thermite mixture components such as aluminum powder and iron oxide.
We recommend that security services must remain vigilant to the possible use of drones by terrorists or threat actors at public gatherings or events.
CTG recommends Ukraine reassess its defensive tactics, focusing on lowering the risk posed by Dragon Drones. Soldiers deployed to frontline trenches should clear shrubbery around their positions to limit the effects of incendiary.
Ukrainian military leadership stays aware of the risk the thermite drones pose to small, dispersed, and unarmored units.
The Ukrainian army should enhance electronic warfare capabilities, such as jamming systems, to counter the use of armed drones.
The military should avoid using thermite drones near locations where they can inflict damage to civilians and civilian infrastructures.
CTG recommends that Ukrainian security and intelligence services monitor online platforms such as Telegram and X to track Russian use of thermite drones and videos published online.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the ease of acquisition and use of Dragon Drones and their destructive potential. Russia will very likely seek to disrupt Ukrainian lines and inflict damage on opposing troops by using thermite drones. The Russian army will very likely combine kinetic and psychological operations to increase military and political pressure on Ukraine. Terrorists and other armed groups with drone capabilities, such as ISIS or drug cartels, will likely try to adapt the Dragon Drone technology to their operations. Such use will almost certainly increase the threats to civilians, security services, and soldiers, on the battlefield and in civilian areas. The use of thermite drones and their incendiary properties are very likely to put civilian lives and infrastructure at risk.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY Russia will continue deploying Dragon Drones in Ukraine, with Ukraine and Russia VERY LIKELY developing the drone’s effectiveness and capabilities. The spread of footage on social media will ALMOST CERTAINLY expose terrorist groups, lone wolves, and drug cartel members to Dragon Drone tactics, allowing them to build and implement them in terrorist attacks.
[1]Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade, Telegram, September 7, 2024, https://t.me/OMIBr_60/437
[2] Ibid
[3] Andrey Medvedev, Telegram, September 11, 2024, https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/18575
[4] The Drones of ISIS, Defense One, January 2017, https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/01/drones-isis/134542/
[5] Mexican army acknowledges some of its soldiers have been killed by cartel bomb-dropping drones, AP, August 2024, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-drug-cartel-drone-attacks-soldiers-killed-572b39c73c030bef20257517d1c4a91d
[6] Ukrainian 60th Mechanized Brigade, Telegram, September 4, 2024, https://t.me/OMIBr_60/437
[7] Ukrainian drones use thermite munitions, Militarnyi, February 2024, https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-drones-use-thermite-munitions/
[8] 108th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion, Telegram, September 7, 2024, https://t.me/OGHB_108/325
[9] Andrey Medvedev, Telegram, September 11, 2024, https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/18575
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