Finley Thomas, Mercedes Scheible, Jigyasa Maloo, Yassin Belhaj, Amelia Bell, NORTHCOM
Alice Cian, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
November 5, 2024
Telegram Channels[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to federal and state government agencies, law enforcement, and security professionals following the circulation of a video showcasing a person lighting an explosive in a mailing box on an extremist Telegram group. Individuals on Telegram channels have been spreading violent and anti-government rhetoric, including memes calling for the assassination of public officials and threats of an impending civil conflict following the US elections on November 5.[2] The original video was stamped with a “Ted Kaczynski fan-club” sticker, referencing the American lone-wolf terrorist who employed mail bombing tactics.[3]
CTG is on HIGH alert for political figures, government workers, and election workers following the growing threat of far-right violent rhetoric on Telegram channels, promoting election-related violence and anti-government rhetoric. Posts calling for a “civil war,” a “full armor of god,” and to “kill” government officials will VERY LIKELY encourage coordinated attacks and lone-wolf violent actions. Claims of election fraud circulating on Telegram will VERY LIKELY increase engagement and legitimize violence, LIKELY boosting recruitment and strengthening the operational capabilities of extremist groups. Extremist groups will VERY LIKELY take advantage of the momentum around the elections and voters' disillusionment with the election results to take action and share their activities on social media to increase their visibility.
Introduction
On Telegram, an extremist group posted a video showcasing a person lighting an explosive in a mailing box. The video had a circular sticker reporting “Ted Kaczynski Fanclub - Oberes Emmental.”[4] The sticker makes reference to a fan club of Ted Kaczynski, an American lone domestic terrorist responsible for several mail bombing attacks. A warning pinned to the video stated, "Nov. 5th is gonna be a blast" and the caption read "Fun fact: Uncle Ted was a big fan of mail-in voting." Individuals such channels have been discussing and sharing violent and anti-government rhetoric including religious claims, memes, and historical glory.[5]
Users on the channel claimed to wear “the armor of God,” invoking references to spiritual warfare in response to posts about an impending civil war. This rhetoric views the current election process through a religious lens, a divine intervention where “God is retaking control of the US from demonic forces.”[6]
Another user claimed that “military, survival, and weapons training” would be useful if the election is stolen, indicating that individuals are prepared to disregard election results and take violent actions in retaliation. A meme portraying an eagle reading “Bad Government? Kill them” reflects the violent and anti-government views disseminated on Telegram channels. The usage of the phrase “1 Americas 17:76” may imply the year of the American Independence and the visions of the founding fathers of a united nation-state.[7]
Analysis
The shared content showing violent acts against election-related materials such as ballot boxes on Telegram channels will likely aim to inspire real-time actions against government institutions, political figures, and polling stations. This type of content will likely be used as tactical encouragement for followers and will likely offer a potential model for lone actors or groups already inclined towards anti-government violence. Through posting and spreading such videos, Telegram channels will likely normalize the use of violence and encourage extremist actions as legitimate forms of political expression. The rapid spread of such messages will likely position extremist Telegram channels as a central source for incitement to extremist beliefs, likely reaching individuals susceptible to far-right radicalization, including those who feel isolated, disempowered, or drawn to online subcultures promising empowerment and belonging. The focus of these channels on electoral violence will likely resonate with similar channels, likely increasing the occurrence of analogous calls for action and creating a ripple effect across other platforms. Extremist Telegram channels will very likely capitalize on election momentum to share more templates for action and enhance their content productivity, increasing online presence and outreach.
The proliferation of Telegram groups disseminating violent rhetoric throughout and beyond the election period will almost certainly continue largely due to the platform’s minimal moderation policies and anonymization features. Far-right rhetoric disseminated through Telegram chats will likely further incite members to engage in harassment, intimidation, and possible violence against political adversaries if election outcomes do not conform to their beliefs. The members of such group chats will likely take advantage of Telegram’s anonymity and encryption to plan acts of violence without the fear of immediate repercussions by law enforcement, likely exacerbating the spread of violent rhetoric online. These groups will very likely use platforms like Telegram to orchestrate targeted campaigns that coordinate their activities and amplify their messages, likely leading to rallies and protests against government institutions akin to those during the January 6, 2021 Insurrection should Trump lose. Their activities will likely intersect with other far-right movements, such as the Proud Boys. This entrenchment will likely significantly complicate law enforcement's prevention and response strategies as there is a roughly even chance that these groups will likely coordinate their plans together.
The rhetoric encouraging targeting election infrastructures will very likely aim to disrupt the democratic process and undermine election integrity. This destabilization tactic very likely indicates an act of voter intimidation to dissuade political participation on election day. By casting a shadow of insecurity on the electoral process, voters will very likely fear for personal safety when showing up to vote, and election workers will very likely perform their duties in a volatile environment. The warning that "Nov. 5th is gonna be a blast"[8] on the channel suggests the threat environment will likely extend into the post-election phase, very likely by generating uncertainty around the results in the form of a delay in vote counting. Claims of election fraud circulating in this context will likely be compounded by increasing disinformation on social media platforms, including Telegram.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that law enforcement and the National Guard remain on high alert in the days leading up to the final electoral results to ensure public safety and address any potential threats.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and local law enforcement intelligence units should allocate additional resources for monitoring social media and encrypted platforms to detect potential anti-government threats.
Social media companies should collaborate with law enforcement to develop tools to effectively analyze and flag extremist content while safeguarding user privacy.
Users of social media platforms are encouraged to utilize reporting features when they encounter suspicious or violent rhetoric online.
Community outreach programs and local non-profit organizations should build partnerships with local communities, advocacy groups, and educational institutions to raise awareness of the signs of extremist behavior and promote reporting suspicious activities.
Behavioral health services and community mental health organizations should enhance intervention programs designed for individuals at risk of radicalization, providing counseling, education, and support networks to help steer potential recruits away from extremist ideologies.
Election officials should be vigilant to potential threats to election infrastructure and coordinate with local law enforcement to report suspicious activities in and around election sites to ensure swift response.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH for potential risks against polling stations, vote-counting facilities, and government officials, heightened by widespread anti-government narratives and electoral violence. Threats on social media pair direct calls to violence with tactics, targets, and timings, which will very likely encourage actions by supporters and lone wolves. The minimal content moderation policies on Telegram will very likely allow continued dissemination of violent rhetoric during election day and post-election period.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that the use of Telegram channels to share far-right discourse will increase violence towards election officials, government workers, and political figures. Extremists within these Telegram channels will VERY LIKELY use the dissemination of anti-government rhetoric and the promotion of election-related violence to further their ideologies and agendas, LIKELY using these ideologies to justify violent action. It is VERY LIKELY that far-right groups will continue to use Telegram groups to incite violence and promote further calls to action, VERY LIKELY increasing the risk of both coordinated group and lone-actor attacks.
[1] Telegram Channels, generated by third party database
[2] Ibid
[3] The Unabomber, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/unabomber
[4] Threat Hunter on Telegram
[5] Ibid
[6] Demons of the deep state: how evangelicals and conspiracy theories combine in Trump’s America, The Conversations, September 2020, https://theconversation.com/demons-of-the-deep-state-how-evangelicals-and-conspiracy-theories-combine-in-trumps-america-144898
[7] Threat Hunter on Telegram
[8] Ibid