Ludovica Leccese, Agathe Labadi, Elena Alice Rossetti
Brantley Williams, Cameron Muniz, Editor; Evan Beachler, Senior Editor
July 31, 2024
IRGC formation[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all inhabitants of Israel and neighboring countries following the killing of a Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in a predawn airstrike in Tehran, Iran. Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of the assassination, heightening the risk of escalation in a volatile region. Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge, stating, “Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.”[2]
CTG is on HIGH alert due to the immediate retaliatory actions warned by Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah against Israeli and possibly Western targets. The killing of Haniyeh, Hamas political chief and head of Hamas' Politburo, in Tehran, will VERY LIKELY increase the risk of regional conflict, given Iran's close ties with Hamas and its aim to retaliate. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge, which will VERY LIKELY lead to severe retaliatory responses. The revenge will LIKELY manifest in various forms, including missile strikes, cyberattacks, or proxy assaults by allied militant groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas. The assassination will ALMOST CERTAINLY threaten ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza. US mediators had indicated progress in these talks, but that progress will VERY LIKELY collapse, ALMOST CERTAINLY leading to renewed and intensified conflict in Gaza. The strike will ALMOST CERTAINLY increase the volatility in Lebanon following Israel’s recent targeting of a Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr.[3] It will VERY LIKELY lead to a broader conflict involving multiple state and non-state actors across the Middle East.
Introduction
On Wednesday, July 31, 2024, at approximately 0300 local time, a predawn strike killed Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas in Tehran, Iran. This assassination occurred just hours after Haniyeh attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Iran and Hamas widely condemned the strike allegedly conducted by Israeli forces, escalating tensions in an already volatile region.[4] The timing of this strike is not coincidental, coming immediately after Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut, increasing the chances of enlarging the Israel/Hamas conflict.[5] Israel has yet to acknowledge nor deny the attack against Haniyeh.[6] In a public statement, Khamenei revealed that Iran will retaliate directly and prepare further attack and defense plans if the war expands.[7]
Iranian authorities vowed revenge, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declaring a "harsh punishment"[8] for Israel. In response, Iranian and Hamas-affiliated forces are on high alert, preparing for potential retaliatory actions and the war’s expansion.[9] Law enforcement and emergency personnel across the region are working to bolster security at sensitive locations, including embassies and government buildings, while enhancing border controls. International diplomatic efforts are intensifying, with the US and other global actors urging restraint and working to prevent a full-scale regional conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that the US was "not aware of or involved in" the attack.[10] Qatar condemned the killing, judging it as “a heinous crime”[11] and “a flagrant violation of international and humanitarian law.”[12] Qatar’s prime minister and foreign affairs minister on X urged peace and the end of political killings to enhance negotiations by asking, “how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”[13] Developments are rapidly unfolding, with heightened security measures expected to remain in place as the situation evolves.
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The immediate risk of retaliatory attacks by Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, will likely lead to a significant escalation of violence across the Middle East. This escalation will likely result in imminent’ retaliatory actions from different fronts, including Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, “for maximum effect,” as Iranian officials stated as a potential option.[14] The potential responses will very likely include coordinated missile strikes, terrorist attacks, and cyber operations, which will likely urge the involvement of multiple regional state and non-state actors. Given the historical patterns of conflict escalation in the Middle East, Iran will very likely employ its extensive network of regional militias and allies to conduct coordinated attacks against Israeli targets and potentially Western interests. The likely coordinated attacks will likely cause widespread military engagements, further destabilizing countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, which are prone to conflict and political instability. The timing of the attacks on Tehran and Beirut against Hamas and Hezbollah’s figures will likely increase the coordination among these two Iranian proxies, likely leading to simultaneous attacks against Israel on multiple fronts.
Iran will almost certainly increase verbal retaliation threats against Israel, likely stressing the narrative of a “harsh punishment” through government officials’ statements.[15] Iran will very likely attack Israel directly, as happened on April 13, likely to prove its commitment to the Palestinian cause among its regional proxies. Regional proxies and Iranian supporters will very likely read Ismail Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran as a sign of Iranian weaknesses or gaps in the security apparatuses, likely increasing Iranian necessity to provide a symbolic, prompt response. Iranian supporters will almost certainly demand wider security and safety measures to protect its senior officials before revenge.[16] The retaliation will likely send a political message and serve as a show of force, likely enabling the Iranian leadership to avenge Ismail Haniyeh’s death. Considering Ismael’s funeral will occur on August 1, there is a roughly even chance that Iran will stage a first attack directly or in coordination with its regional proxies on the same day, likely to symbolize they have the strength to hit and destroy the “The criminal, terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest.”[17] Hamas will very likely portray Ismail’s death in official statements and on social media groups as martyrdom, very likely underlying he set an example for Palestinians. Ismail Haniyeh’s historical roles in Hamas and the fact that three of his sons died in the war in Gaza[18] almost certainly increase his credibility as a martyr who sacrificed his life and his family for the Palestinians, even if he lived abroad. His glorification on social media will very likely aim at increasing Hamas’ recruitment and popular support in Gaza and Palestine. Hamas' focus on searching for revenge and punishing Israel will very likely resonate in Gaza, likely exploiting the population’s resentment toward Israel after the attacks and the humanitarian crisis.
Ismail Haniyeh’s death has a roughly even chance of weakening Hamas’ political wing in the short term, likely emboldening the military wing to increase its role in the overall organization. The sudden lack of his political leadership will likely complicate diplomatic relations with regional states and non-state actors, with a roughly even chance of challenging coordination among them. His killing will unlikely disrupt Hamas' structures or military strategies in the long term, considering he played mainly a political role. There is a roughly even chance the succession period might force Hamas to spend resources and time on choosing his replacement rather than focus these assets on the war in Gaza.
The disruption of ongoing peace negotiations and ceasefire efforts, to which Ismail Haniyeh was a key contributor, will very likely prolong the Gaza conflict and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, likely resulting in increased civilian casualties and displacement. Haniyeh’s assassination will very likely undermine the progress made in these dialogues and significantly diminish the prospects for a peaceful resolution. The breakdown of dialogue will likely result in intensified violence and block any efforts to address critical issues such as aid distribution and reconstruction. The disruption of efforts will likely strain regional infrastructure, amplify human suffering, and create conditions that could foster radicalization and extremism by feeding the hopelessness and helplessness feelings of a prolonged war.
In the longer term, the expanded conflict and its associated crises will likely prompt a reevaluation of international alliances and strategic priorities. Global powers, including the US, Russia, and the EU, will likely need to reassess their regional engagement strategies, balancing immediate conflict management with long-term strategic interests. The international community will likely face increased pressure to engage in diplomatic and humanitarian efforts to address the escalating violence and mitigate its impact, complicating the global response to the evolving situation.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends Israel strengthen security protocols at potential targets, including embassies, government buildings, and public places, particularly in Israel and countries with significant Jewish communities.
Israel should enhance border security by intensifying monitoring and control at Lebanese/Israeli and Jordanian/Israeli border crossings to prevent the infiltration of militants and smuggling of weapons.
CTG recommends that Israeli Intelligence agencies and national security departments deploy additional resources for real-time surveillance and monitoring of communications among known terrorist groups and their affiliates.
Israel and foreign countries' embassies should issue public warnings and safety instructions to residents in high-risk areas, ensuring they remain vigilant and report suspicious activities.
Foreign states should advise and prepare emergency measures to protect nationals living in Israel, Lebanon, and Iran and plan rescue flights if further regional tensions escalate.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH based on the immediate potential for broader regional escalation. The assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by an alleged Israeli strike has heightened the risk of immediate retaliatory actions from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, as these groups historically conducted aggressive and coordinated responses. The risks are significant, with potential immediate impacts on Israeli citizens, diplomatic missions, and international businesses operating in the region. The situation mirrors past conflicts where targeted actions led to widespread violence and instability, and the potential for wider regional instability will likely affect neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Syria, and beyond. The high-risk environment will likely broaden regional tensions that will likely involve multiple state and non-state actors. These tensions will likely destabilize the Middle East, affecting global oil supplies and international economic stability. Given the historical patterns and the current volatile environment, retaliatory actions and escalations will very likely occur, as the assassination of a high-profile leader in a tense geopolitical climate will almost certainly trigger a cycle of retaliation and conflict.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of imminent retaliatory attacks by Iran and its allied groups in response to the assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The retaliation will LIKELY include coordinated missile strikes, cyberattacks, and terrorist activities targeting Israeli military and civilian infrastructure, LIKELY increasing the risk of violence and instability in the Middle East. The assassination of Haniyeh, a prominent figure in Hamas and a key player in peace negotiations, has derailed ongoing diplomatic efforts and will ALMOST CERTAINLY lead to a breakdown in dialogue, prolonging the conflict in Gaza and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. This disruption will VERY LIKELY impede aid distribution and hinder reconstruction efforts, LIKELY increasing civilian casualties and displacement. The situation will ALMOST CERTAINLY require immediate attention and proactive measures to prevent widespread violence and maintain regional stability. International diplomatic efforts and heightened security protocols are ALMOST CERTAINLY essential to mitigate the threat and protect civilians, and diplomatic efforts must be intensified to de-escalate tensions and facilitate dialogue.
[1] 2022 IRGC army exercise in Aras region, by Ali Abdollahi, llicensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.
[2] @khamenei_ir,X, July 31, 2024 https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293?s=46&t=XPRXNbv3ke9ld9LxM3Oadw
[3] Israel claims it killed senior Hezbollah commander in strike on Beirut, BBC, July 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1rwxyjydlyo
[4] Hamas’ top political leader is killed in Iran in strike that risks triggering all-out regional war, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779
[5] How two strikes on militant leaders in the Middle East could escalate into a regional war, AP News, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/haniyeh-shukur-israel-lebanon-hamas-5d3ec9b048ef77b6b8196c6c08755dbd
[6] Israel sends message with Hamas chief killing, analysts say; Iran vows revenge, Voice of America, July 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-sends-message-with-killing-analysts-say-iran-vows-revenge/7724791.html
[7] Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say, New York Times, July 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html
[8] @khamenei_ir, X, July 30, 2024,
[9] Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say, New York Times, July 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html
[10] US not involved in the killing of Hamas chief Haniyeh, says Secretary of State Blinken, CNA, July 2024,
[11] The State of Qatar Condemns Assassination of Head of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 2024, https://mofa.gov.qa/en/statements/the-state-of-qatar-condemns-assassination-of-head-of-the-political-bureau-of-hamas
[12] Ibid.
[13] @MBA_AlThani_, X, July 31, 2024, https://x.com/MBA_AlThani_/status/1818572584327221303
[14] Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say, New York Times, July 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html
[15] Israel sends message with Hamas chief killing, analysts say; Iran vows revenge, Voice of America, July 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-sends-message-with-killing-analysts-say-iran-vows-revenge/7724791.html
[16] Iran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say, New York Times, July 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/31/world/middleeast/iran-orders-attack-israel.html
[17] @khamenei_ir, X, July 31, 2024, https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818569675946491948
[18] Who was Ismail Haniyeh and why is his assassination a blow to Hamas?, Reuters, July 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/obituary-tough-talking-haniyeh-was-seen-more-moderate-face-hamas-2024-07-31/
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