Samuel Pearson, Jacob Robison, NORTHCOM
Sabrina Bernardo, Extremism Team
Alice Cian, James Raggio, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
November 1, 2024
Empty Campaign Stage[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to elected officials, the Trump and Harris teams, and the Cheney family due to rhetoric allegedly calling for the execution of Liz Cheney. During a Glendale, AZ rally with Tucker Carlson, Trump called Liz Cheney a “radical war hawk” and suggested Cheney would change her policy preferences if others targeted her with firearms.[2] Trump’s supporters and media team have argued that the statement is out of context, and reverted blame onto the national media and the Harris campaign.[3] Some conservative outlets, like Drudge Report, have condemned the statement while others, like Fox & Friends, have expressed support or aligned with narratives about misinterpretation, leading to a divide between Republican influencers.[4]
CTG is on HIGH alert for threats against presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump, and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney. Social media monitoring indicates Trump’s rhetoric has VERY LIKELY alarmed many of his political opponents, who VERY LIKELY believe he is calling for violence against his critics. The former President’s remarks LIKELY embolden far-right extremists, LIKELY leading them to believe threats of violence are permissible. Trump and his supporters will LIKELY use the media rush to fuel narratives about election fraud and media bias.
Introduction
On Thursday, October 31, 2024, Trump held a rally in Glendale, Arizona, where he criticized multiple officials, primarily former US Representative Liz Cheney, and questioned the 2024 Presidential Election’s integrity. Trump, during a discussion about Cheney’s political opposition to him, stated that she should be placed in front of multiple rifles “shooting at her” so she could understand a soldier's experience.[5] Additionally, he referred to Cheney as “deranged” and “a radical war hawk.”[6] Cheney responded to the statement the following day, likening Trump to a dictator and tyrant. Trump opposes Cheney’s father, former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, on his support for military intervention in Iraq, and Cheney has condemned Trump after the January 6, 2021 Insurrection.[7] Liz Cheney, who lost her congressional seat after co-leading Insurrection investigations, has endorsed presidential candidate Kamala Harris.[8]
Trump and his campaign publicly criticized both the policies and the character of his opponents in several instances, including Vice President Harris, former President Obama, and election workers. Trump has repeatedly promised to investigate and prosecute political opponents, including President Biden and Harris, and indicated he would use the National Guard or military to quell leftists.[9] Some opponents, including Harris, have previously referred to Trump as a fascist.[10] The campaign staff, many of Trump’s supporters, as well as former Republican Congressman Joe Walsh, state that the moment in Glendale was taken out of context, and criticize news media and Harris for their perceived exaggeration.[11] Other conservative outlets, like Drudge Report, openly oppose Trump’s statement and have become targets of conservatives defending Trump online.[12]
Analysis
The perception of Trump’s desire to persecute and use violence against his political opponents will likely lead to continued outcry and lasting grievances. Threats to Trump’s safety will very likely increase as extremist aggrieved individuals contemplate or plan violent action to stop the former President’s election bid by force. If Trump wins the election, lone and informally organized extremist actors will likely commit violence motivated by a mix of fear and frustration. Some of this violence will very likely occur spontaneously as protests turn disorderly. Spontaneous violence will very likely include assault with whatever weapons are available at the time, likely vehicles, knives, or bare hands, with a roughly even chance of firearm attacks. Extremist lone actors at protests or in other settings will likely commit spontaneous violence, with a roughly even chance of planned attacks. Planned attacks will likely employ firearms, explosives, or both, given their relatively wide availability to interested individuals.
Trump’s comments will very likely enhance broader anxieties among the US population regarding the country’s domestic stability and security. The frequency and popularity of social media content referencing violent resistance to the government and an expected imminent civil war likely indicates that many Americans are expecting political violence in the immediate future. Some US extremists are very likely preparing to personally respond to political violence, likely in vigilante-style attacks against oppositional officials or violence against civilians involved in counter-protests or demonstrations. If protests against either election candidate’s possible victory turn violent in the aftermath of election day, some of the winning candidate’s supporters will likely commit retaliatory attacks.
Some far-right extremists will very likely view the rally as a call to action, issuing threats against Cheney, likely attempting to intimidate her into discontinuing her political career. Some threat actors, likely operating alone or in small groups given law enforcement scrutiny of larger extremist movements, will likely begin planning attacks against Cheney. Given the timescales involved in the planning of attacks, Cheney will likely face a heightened threat environment over the next six months.
Supporters of the Trump campaign will very likely continue counter-claiming that news media coverage, and Democratic party responses to the rally in Glendale are dishonest. These narratives will likely exacerbate grievances among the US political right, and lead to a heightened threat against journalists and the Democratic party. There is a roughly even chance of attempted attacks against journalists and Democratic party officials over the next three months.
Trump’s supporters will very likely face threats and abuse as grievances against their presidential candidate exacerbate, likely leading to violence against them. Widespread discourse equating Trump to historical authoritarian leaders, including Adolf Hitler, will likely embolden extremist individuals and small groups to harass and attempt to intimidate his supporters. Activists and extremists from both sides of the political divide will very likely spread recordings or allegations of attempted attacks, threats, or intimidation online to delegitimize their political opponents, likely furthering polarization in the US.
The violent phrasing of Trump’s remarks regarding former leading Wyoming politician Cheney will very likely foster grievances among some residents. The trends towards isolationism often expressed in Wyoming and Cheney’s relatively low popularity will likely limit the scale of these grievances. Residual state pride and concerns over Trump’s rejection of judicial and electoral integrity will likely fuel most threats. Individuals behind these threats will likely direct them toward local Republican party and Trump campaign offices, likely making bomb or shooting threats.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Liz Cheney and her family be vigilant about their security, only traveling when necessary. They should consider utilizing either personal or government-provided security teams, to increase their safety in public spaces.
Federal law enforcement should monitor Cheney to ensure their safety as they continue to make public appearances.
The US Secret Service (USSS) should ensure they have thoroughly analyzed the lessons learned from the assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, and implement the corrections.
Civilians should make safety considerations regarding their attendance at rallies, protests, and voting places in politically divided locations like Florida and Pennsylvania, and determine their level of risk.
Supporters of political parties should notify law enforcement of any threats or intimidation, and refrain from retaliation.
Members of the public should remain alert for suspicious behavior, such as loitering individuals photographing or filming buildings and people, or unidentified drones hovering near political event sites.
CTG assesses that the current threat risk is HIGH due to rising tensions and polarization of the US election. Trump's rhetoric, including the statement regarding Cheney, will likely encourage extremist supporters to act on these perceived calls for violence.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of increased political violence against oppositional individuals including officials, civilians, and poll workers. The Trump campaign will VERY LIKELY leverage media reactions to bolster narratives of election fraud and showcase perceived bias against him. Supporters of Trump will VERY LIKELY defend the comment and align with narratives blaming biased media, with some far-right supporters LIKELY interpreting the statement as a call to action. Cheney will LIKELY experience online and in-person harassment, LIKELY including threats of violence and demeaning criticisms. The Harris campaign and other groups supporting Harris will LIKELY emphasize the violent nature of the comment to sway disaffected Republican voters and reaffirm support from Democratic voters. Unlock the Power of Knowledge with The Counter Threat Center! Elevate your threat detection capabilities with critical intelligence on global threats. Join us for a free trial and equip yourself to safeguard those you've sworn to protect. Click here to learn more: https://www.counterthreatcenter.com/subscriptions
[1] Microhpne, generated by a third party database
[2] Harris laced into Trump. Trump laced into… everything. Politico, November 2024, https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/31/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-harris-spar-in-the-west-00186692
[3] Trump draws outrage after saying Cheney should have guns ‘trained on her face’, Reuters, November 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-liz-cheney-should-face-firing-squad-her-foreign-policy-stance-2024-11-01/
[4] ‘Fox & Friends’ rips Drudge for ‘totally irresponsible’ Trump-Cheney headline, The Hill, November 2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4965880-fox-and-friends-rips-drudge-for-totally-irresponsible-trump-cheney-headline/
[5] Trump says Liz Cheney might not be such a ‘war hawk’ if she had rifles shooting at her, AP, November 2024, https://apnews.com/article/election-trump-cheney-war-hawk-14e2037b4fd8d22acf64c8b888ce296d
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] Trump draws outrage after saying Cheney should have guns ‘trained on her face’, Reuters, November 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-liz-cheney-should-face-firing-squad-her-foreign-policy-stance-2024-11-01/
[9] Who has Trump threatened to prosecute if he becomes president again? Reuters, November 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-threats-prosecute-opponents-election-workers-google-2024-10-30/
[10] Harris called Trump a 'fascist.' Experts debate what fascism is — and isn't, NPR, October 2024, https://www.npr.org/2024/10/29/nx-s1-5164488/harris-trump-fascist-explained
[11] Trump says Liz Cheney might not be such a ‘war hawk’ if she had rifles shooting at her, AP, November 2024, https://apnews.com/article/election-trump-cheney-war-hawk-14e2037b4fd8d22acf64c8b888ce296d
[12] ‘Fox & Friends’ rips Drudge for ‘totally irresponsible’ Trump-Cheney headline, The Hill, November 2024, https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4965880-fox-and-friends-rips-drudge-for-totally-irresponsible-trump-cheney-headline/