(The Flash Alert is a report that analyzes a threat being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)
Lydia Baccino, Sabrina Bernardo, Daniela De Luca, William Adams, Camilla Raffaelli, Jacob Robison, Extremism and NORTHCOM Team
Angelina Sammarco, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
January 1, 2025
Bourbon Street and Canal Street Crossing, New Orleans[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all law enforcement, citizens, and travelers following the New Orleans vehicle attack during New Year celebrations. At approximately 0315 local time a suspect drove down Bourbon Street, French Quarter, intentionally driving into a crowd of people, killing 15 and injuring more than 30.[2] Anne Kirkpatrick, superintendent of the New Orleans Police Department (NOPD), stated “The suspect drove around barricades erected to stop traffic, due to his intentional mindset… This man was trying to run over as many people as he possibly could… He was hell-bent on creating the carnage and the damage that he did."[3] After the suspect crashed, he fired at police officers injuring two. Current investigations are detecting whether the suspect fired a long-gun rifle as he was driving through the crowds. Responding police officers shot the suspect after engaging in gunfire and he died. The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) is investigating the incident as an act of terrorism due to improvised explosives devices (IED) found at the scene, and is assessing its viability.[4] Investigations are currently determining if this was a lone actor incident or if the suspect is attached to an organization. No national or international terror organization has claimed responsibility for this attack.
CTG is on HIGH alert due to an incident on Bourbon Street, French Quarter, in New Orleans involving an individual driving a vehicle into a crowd, LIKELY highlighting the dangers surrounding events with large attendance. Future implications will VERY LIKELY involve a heightened sense of insecurity in the city, and an increase of social media rhetoric, LIKELY spreading false information about the incident. Law enforcement will VERY LIKELY monitor social media and online platforms for indications of plans for future attacks. Investigations will VERY LIKELY aim to understand the motive behind the incident and determine if the perpetrator planned and executed it alone or with more individuals. Law enforcement will VERY LIKELY investigate radicalization and terrorism as motivations for the attack. Law enforcement will VERY LIKELY investigate the possibility of additional, similarly motivated attacks, including any potential connection to the explosion in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Introduction
On January 1, 2025, during New Year celebrations in New Orleans, at 0315 local time, a white pickup truck with a Texas license plate turned from Canal Street into Bourbon Street, plowing into a crowd of pedestrians.[5] The driver bypassed pedestrian barricades, rammed multiple people, and then reportedly opened fire on the crowd and police officers.[6] According to NOPD Superintendent Anne Kirkpatrick, law enforcement officers responded by engaging with firearms and stopping the suspect.[7] The attack left at least 15 people dead and 30 injured at the time of reporting.[8] The vehicle, a white 2023 Ford F150 Lightning, is an electric truck that the suspect reportedly rented through the car-sharing app Turo.[9]
New Orleans law enforcement identified the suspect as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, from Houston, Texas.[10] According to the suspect’s own words in a YouTube video from May 2020, he served in the US Army[11] for 10 years, specializing in human resources and information technology, and obtained a bachelor’s degree in business administration in computer information systems.[12] In July 2020, Jabbar was arrested for driving while intoxicated in Missouri City, Texas.[13]
The FBI determined that the attacker was flying an ISIS flag off the back of the truck, and President Biden revealed that Jabbar had posted claims on social media about being inspired by ISIS to kill. In response to early conspiracies about an FBI cover-up, Biden assured the public that the investigation would be transparent.[14]
Officials are investigating the suspect’s use of a long-gun rifle, which they found at the scene with a “suppressive device”[15] acting as a silencer. Sources involved in the investigation stated the suspect was wearing body armor.[16] An ISIS flag was reportedly found in the truck and investigators are working to identify any links between the driver and foreign terrorist organizations.[17] Local law enforcement and the FBI are actively looking into possible accomplices of the suspect in the preparation and execution of the attack,[18] and potential ties to the Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion that happened on the same day are not being excluded.[19]
Extremist groups and lone actor attacks are increasingly executing vehicular attacks as they can “strike at the heart of urban centers and sow fear in the wider society.”[20] After 9/11, sensitive potential targets like airports became heavily guarded through added security measures, and vehicles became a primary option for assailants as they were able to reach vulnerable targets.[21] Notable vehicle attacks include:
In 2016, a man drove a 19-ton truck through the crowd at the Bastille Day fireworks in southern France, killing 87 and injuring approximately 434 spectators. The suspect became self-radicalized through online jihadist videos, although there was no evidence of his links with ISIS.[22]
In 2017, an assailant drove a pickup truck into a crowded bike path along the Hudson River in Manhattan, New York City, killing eight and injuring at least 11 before the police shot the driver.[23]
In 2017, a white supremacist drove his car into a crowd of people protesting against the 2017 Unite the Right Rally, killing one woman and injuring nearly 40 people. He was convicted of first-degree murder.[24]
In 2017, an attacker drove a rented van into large crowds of people in the Las Ramblas area of Barcelona, killing 13 people and injuring dozens.[25]
In 2021, Darrell Brooks drove his SUV into the Christmas parade in Waukesha, Wisconsin, killing six people and injuring dozens.[26]
In December 2024, an assailant drove his vehicle into Magdeburg’s Christmas market in Germany, killing five people and injuring more than 200.[27]
Numerous online users, especially on Telegram channels and X, have been reporting on the attack and its investigation, embedding personal commentary within their posts.[28] Before law enforcement publicized details of the suspect’s identity and the flag on his vehicle, individuals speculated over the transparency and reliability of the investigations, claiming that officials wanted to hide key information from the public.[29]
Analysis
This attack likely confirms a threat actors’ tactical shift and a return to simpler methods of operation, almost certainly increasing the risk of mass-casualty incidents in crowded urban areas, where large crowds and limited security likely reduce prevention and mitigation efforts. The accessibility of vehicles and the ability to bypass traditional security measures, such as barricades, very likely makes them an attractive method for individuals with malicious intent. High-density and high-profile settings, such as festivals, parades, or protests, will likely be at higher risk of attack, as incidents like this likely suggest premeditation with careful planning to target large groups and exploit vulnerabilities in public events and spaces. Threat actors, such as lone actors or organized groups, will likely leverage the difficulty of securing public spaces, as local governments likely attempt to reconcile security and urban needs.
Vehicles and firearms very likely provide a low entry barrier for potential attackers, likely allowing threat actors to target large crowds with minimal effort and expertise. Leveraging everyday objects for violence likely indicates an evolving threat landscape, as easily obtainable and common tools that go unnoticed are more frequently used by threat actors, paired with or without high-tech solutions and weapons. The variety of potential arms and attacking methods almost certainly pose new challenges to security strategies.
Attacks on public spaces with large attendance very likely have a substantial psychological impact on the targeted population, likely deterring them from visiting outdoor events and eroding their trust in public safety officials. The lack of trust will likely spread to other states, likely creating a vulnerability that extremist groups will exploit to carry out more mass-casualty attacks. These extremist groups likely capitalize on grievances and potential disinformation surrounding government malpractice to recruit new members and motivate attacks. Anti-government rhetoric about the government and security professionals’ failures and conspiracies about the federal law enforcement cover-up efforts will likely spread. Armed militia members will likely exploit the sense of insecurity stemming from distrust in law enforcement, likely patrolling and monitoring high-profile public events and gatherings. Their presence will likely distract local security personnel and divert law enforcement resources, with a roughly even chance of delaying their responses to other potential threats.
Social media will almost certainly play an essential role in shaping public perception of the attack, likely facilitating the spread of factual and inaccurate or false information. Real-time updates on platforms, such as X, TikTok, Telegram, and Instagram, will likely lead to widespread coverage. This coverage will likely lead to the increase of unfounded claims concerning the suspect’s affiliations, motivations, and the possibility of future attacks. Hashtags, viral posts, and user-generated content will likely amplify genuine updates and misinformation, likely contributing to public unrest and confusion. Releasing factual information will likely be challenging for investigating authorities, as misinformation and disinformation online will likely spread around their statements. This competing information will likely confuse the general public’s perspective, likely increasing the prevalence of misinformation. False claims amplification will likely fuel tensions among various factions, with social media users likely linking the attack to extremist ideologies and organizations before authorities' confirmation. This dynamic will almost certainly complicate law enforcement work, as they will need to monitor and mitigate the impact of disinformation while investigating the attack’s origin and deriving threats.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that security staff monitoring entry points to public spaces, like parking garages and shopping malls ensure they appropriately search trucks with nonvisible cargo, including evaluating the passengers for weapons.
Public space planners should monitor spaces for their susceptibility to vehicular attacks and maintain effective barriers in high-traffic areas to protect bystanders.
Public space planners working with law enforcement to create security plans for future events should utilize dump trucks, semi trucks, or Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) vans to prevent other vehicles from accessing pedestrian walkways.
Vehicle rental companies, especially ones that rent trucks and box trucks, should closely evaluate their vetting process to minimize vulnerability to exploitation.
Local and federal law enforcement should monitor social media and online platforms for any indications of plans for similar attacks.
Local and federal law enforcement should monitor extremist and terrorist groups' social channels for claims of responsibility and clarifications regarding the motives and perpetrators.
Residents and travelers should pay close attention to local and federal law enforcement’s advice and announcements regarding security and safety measures in the area.
Individuals with information relevant to the investigation, like personally identifying details, should contact the appropriate law enforcement agency, by calling the FBI at 1-800- CALL-FBI or visiting www.fbi.gov/bourbonstreetattack.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the potential group element of the incident. If the perpetrator was working with more individuals, there could likely be further planned attacks. Even if the attacker acted alone, there is a risk that this incident will likely inspire copycat attacks by extremist individuals.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of future vehicle-based attacks targeting public gatherings, as attackers will LIKELY continue to exploit the accessibility and effectiveness of vehicles as weapons. The use of vehicles to carry out mass-casualty incidents in crowded urban spaces will LIKELY increase, especially in high-profile settings, such as festivals, parades, and protests. The use of vehicle-based attacks will VERY LIKELY prompt authorities to reorganize their prevention strategies, LIKELY prioritizing public space security and improving the application of timely, actionable intelligence. Social media will VERY LIKELY amplify both accurate and false information about these incidents, LIKELY spreading public insecurity and complicating law enforcement’s response.
[1] Bourbon Street, Courtesy Photo by DVIDS Hub, licensed under Public Domain. (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] At least 10 killed on New Orleans’ Bourbon Street after person drives a car into crowd, NBC News, January 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-orleans-killed-mass-casualty-bourbon-street-car-crowd-rcna185914
[3] Ibid
[4] Ibid
[5] What We Know About the Attack in the French Quarter of New Orleans, The New York Times, January 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/us/new-orleans-attack-what-we-know.html
[6] New Orleans attack updates: 10 dead, dozens injured after vehicle plows into crowd on Bourbon Street, ABC News, January 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/US/1-dead-vehicle-strikes-crowd-new-orleans-police/story?id=117246329
[7] Ibid
[8] At least 10 killed on New Orleans’ Bourbon Street after person drives a car into crowd, NBC News, January 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-orleans-killed-mass-casualty-bourbon-street-car-crowd-rcna185914
[9] Suspect in New Orleans Attack Is Identified as a Texan and Had an ISIS Flag With Him, The New York Times, January 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/us/suspect-new-orleans-texan-isis-flag.html
[10] Personal Introduction, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, May 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-dqDlgQei0. Last accessed on January 1, 2025, before removal
[11] What we know about Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the suspect in the New Orleans attack, ABC News, January 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/US/suspect-new-orleans-attack-bourbon-street/story?id=117247072
[12] Ibid
[13] Texas Arrests Database, Arrests.org, July 2020, https://texas.arrests.org/Arrests/Shamsud-Din_Jabbar_45457786/
[14] Biden vows to keep public informed about investigation into ‘despicable’ New Orleans attack, NBC News, January 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-new-orleans-attack-rcna185938
[15] 10 killed on Bourbon Street in New Orleans after suspect intentionally slams truck into crowd; dozens injured, CBS News, January 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-orleans-vehicle-crash-bourbon-street-crowd-casualties-shooting/
[16] Ibid
[17] FBI Statement on the Attack in New Orleans, Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), January 2025, https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-the-attack-in-new-orleans
[18] Driver flying ISIS flag rams into New Orleans crowd, killing 15; he may have had help, Reuters, January 2025, https://reuters.com/world/us/multiple-fatalities-truck-crashes-into-new-orleans-crowd-cbs-news-says-2025-01-01/
[19] New details emerge on the suspect involved in the fatal Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion, KTNV Las Vegas, January 2025, https://www.ktnv.com/news/crime/new-details-emerge-on-the-suspect-involved-in-the-fatal-las-vegas-cybertruck-explosion
[20] Vehicle Ramming Attacks: Using Cars and Trucks as Weapons Has Become Common, The New York Times, January 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/world/vehicle-ramming-attacks.html?smid=url-share
[21] Ibid
[22] France Remembers the Nice Attack: ‘We Will Never Find the Words’, The New York Times, February 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/14/world/europe/nice-attack-france-bastille-day.html
[23] Terror Attack Kills 8 and Injures 11 in Manhattan, The New York Times, October 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/nyregion/police-shooting-lower-manhattan.html
[24] Ohio Man Sentenced to Life in Prison for Federal Hate Crimes Related to August 2017 Car Attack at Rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, US Department of Justice, June 2019, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ohio-man-sentenced-life-prison-federal-hate-crimes-related-august-2017-car-attack-rally
[25] Barcelona Attack: 13 killed as van rams crowds in Las Ramblas, BBC, August 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40965581
[26] Authorities warned of vehicle-ramming attack danger in US during holiday season, ABC News, January 2025,
[27] What we know about Magdeburg market attack suspect Abdulmohsen, BBC, December 2024,
[28] Threat Hunter on Telegram
[29] Ibid
[30] 10 killed on Bourbon Street in New Orleans after suspect intentionally slams truck into crowd; dozens injured, CBS News, January 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-orleans-vehicle-crash-bourbon-street-crowd-casualties-shooting/
[31] Ibid