January 30 - February 5, 2025 | Issue 3 - CENTCOM and PACOM
Jigyasa Maloo, Nicholas Novak, Agathe Labadi, Martina Sclaverano, Amelia Bell
James Raggio, Editor; Samantha Mikulskis, Angelina Sammarco, Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Myanmar Flag[1]
Date: January 31, 2025 Â
Location: Myanmar
Parties involved: Myanmar; Myanmar military junta; junta leaders; rebel forces; armed groups, Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, Karenni Nationalities People’s Liberation Front (KNPLF); ethnic paramilitary group founded by multiple local armed groups, Kayan National Army; anti-junta alliance between the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Three Brotherhood Alliance; Myanmar civilians; displaced men, women and children; China; USA; UK; UN; UN Security Council (UNSC)
The event: The Myanmar junta prolonged the state of emergency by six months.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The junta will very likely use the state of emergency extension to prepare for a counteroffensive, likely escalating armed confrontations between the junta and rebel forces, such as the Kayan National Army and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, seeking to increase pressure against the junta on multiple fronts. Both rebel groups will very likely seek to exploit the junta’s vulnerabilities such as declining troop morale and logistical challenges. Rebel’s aim to exploit junta forces' reorganizations will likely trigger a new phase of the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s Operation 1027 involving intensified attacks, while the Kayan National Army will very likely launch offensives in Kayah and Shan States, likely straining the junta’s forces by adding new frontlines. This sustained pressure will likely weaken the junta’s ability to maintain territorial control, very likely leading to increased defections and disruptions in the junta’s logistical capabilities.
As the junta extends emergency the resulting confrontation with rebel groups will very likely force civilians to flee the violence, likely exposing them to human rights abuses and worsening their living conditions. Displacement camps will very likely struggle to accommodate all civilians, likely lacking sufficient food and medical supplies. Displaced women and children will almost certainly run the risk of being captured, trafficked, and assaulted, while displaced men will likely be vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups, such as the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army and the KNPLF, or imprisonment by the junta forces. Continued confrontations between rebel groups and the junta will very likely reduce the likelihood of potential peace talks in the long term, very likely prolonging humanitarian hurdles.
The state of emergency will likely worsen Myanmar’s isolation very likely prompting stronger condemnations, such as additional sanctions on key junta leaders and junta-affiliated businesses, and formal denunciations in meetings. Sanctions from Western countries, such as the USA and the UK, will likely restrict the junta’s access to finance and weapons; however, these measures will unlikely weaken their continued grip on power considering China’s support for the junta. China will very likely maintain its veto to support the junta, very likely reducing UNSC effectiveness by blocking any resolution to sanction them. This very likely reflects the divided international response, likely complicating potential interventions and resolutions in Myanmar, very likely allowing human rights abuses and influence from the junta.
Date: February 3, 2025
Location: Manbij, Syria
Parties involved:Â Syria; Syrian civilians; insurgent groups in Syria; US-backed Kurdish armed group, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF); Turkish-backed armed group, Syrian National Army (SNA); Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK); Turkey; US
The event: A car bomb explosion killed approximately 19 people and injured dozens more, with no group claiming responsibility.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The attack will likely increase internal and ally pressure on the SDF to enhance security measures in Manbij, very likely leading to increased counterterrorism (CT) operations, heightened surveillance, and movement restrictions within the city. The bombing will likely prompt increased coordination between the SDF and international allies, such as the US, in CT efforts, very likely reinforcing the importance of maintaining a military presence in northern Syria. The SDF will likely conduct raids and arrests, very likely disrupting insurgent networks and likely increasing tensions with local populations. Syrian insurgent groups will very likely exploit the large security presence to fuel anti-SDF sentiment and recruit fighters, almost certainly prolonging regional instability.
The increasing threat of attacks along Turkey's border will very likely amplify Ankara’s surveillance and operations in northern Syria, very likely leading to confrontations between the SNA and SDF and likely to bomb attacks. Turkey will unlikely stop its operations against the SDF until they withdraw from the region, likely justifying its actions, such as drone strikes, as CT measures to safeguard its national security. Turkey will very likely keep pressuring the SDF through military and CT operations to disarm and split from the PKK to avoid full military intervention.
The incident will likely expose the strained situation of hospitals and healthcare facilities in Manbij, which ongoing hostilities between the SNA and SDF are almost certainly exacerbating. The growing instability in the region will likely disrupt healthcare supply chains by restricting transportation routes and delaying shipments, very likely limiting access to essential medical resources. Hospitals will very likely face challenges in treating injured patients due to limited equipment, staff shortages, and looting of medical supplies. Hostilities will very likely hinder the repair of damage from previous attacks, very likely weakening the healthcare facilities’ capacity to respond effectively.
[1] Burma, by CIA World Factbook, licensed under Public Domain
[2]Â Myanmar junta extends state of emergency to support election preparations, Reuters, January 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmar-extends-state-emergency-six-months-2025-01-31/Â Â
[3]Â Another car bomb in a northern Syria city kills at least 19, mostly women, Reuters, February 2025, https://apnews.com/article/syria-manbij-bombing-assad-c75d54d0361f6a474b69c6d813eb5c70