Samuel Pearson, Sabrina Bernardo, William Adams, Jacob Robison Extremism Team
James Raggio, Clémence Van Damme, Editors; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
January 17, 2025
Washington DC Road Closures January 20, 2025, 0001 Local Time[1]
Summary
Throughout the election campaign, President-elect Donald Trump and members of his incoming administration, including officials like Lee Zeldin,[2] faced threats of political violence.[3] At the inauguration on January 20, 2025, marking Trump’s term start, stakeholders will likely face several challenges, including the targeting of officials, the use of social media and new technologies as extremist tools, harsh weather, and organized and unorganized protests.
Local and federal officials anticipate that approximately 200,000 individuals will attend the event in Washington DC.[4] Threat actors will likely target government officials, law enforcement, civilians at the event, and elections-related personnel and infrastructure. High-profile guests like President Joe Biden, scheduled performances including Carrie Underwood, and a roughly even chance of politicians from other countries will likely be targets.
In response to recent security concerns, including mass casualty attacks and assassination threats, federal, city, county, and state law enforcement, along with the Capitol police and US Secret Service (USSS), will collaborate to ensure safety during mass demonstrations or attacks on officials or crowds.[5] The District of Columbia National Guard is set to deploy about 7,800 soldiers to secure the location, while the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has established operational bases at its headquarters and Washington field office to assess and share intelligence with law enforcement.[6] These precautionary measures follow the New Year's Day terror attack in New Orleans, Louisiana, and the Cybertruck explosion in front of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada.[7] The potential impact of these threat actors will very likely increase over the short to medium term, likely primarily through remote or covert reconnaissance tools available to individuals, such as smart glasses and unmanned aerial systems (UAS).
Threat actors, predominantly those driven by anti-government or partisan motivations, will likely target various election-related events and individuals to instill fear in the population. Based on the quantity and validity of collected data, CTG assesses with high confidence such actors will likely regard many targets directly and indirectly associated with electoral processes as conducive to fulfilling their violent objectives to disrupt the inauguration.
Thematic Events President-elect Trump and members of his incoming administration faced security concerns during and after the election campaign. An assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, was almost successful. The assailant surveilled the site using a UAS before shooting at Trump from a rooftop 147 yards away using an AR-15 rifle, piercing his ear.[8] Law enforcement prevented a second assassination attempt against the then-former President at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, arresting an individual with a long rifle.[9] Both threat actors were equipped with kevlar plates. Over the Thanksgiving period, unknown perpetrators targeted appointees to the incoming Trump cabinet with bomb threats and swatting attacks. These bomb threats and swatting attacks targeting the appointees' homes, though determined to be false alarms, prompted law enforcement responses. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) director appointee Lee Zeldin received a “pipe bomb threat”[10] with a message supporting Palestinian nationalism.[11] Members of Congress from the Democratic Party also received bomb threats on Thanksgiving. Perpetrators often spoof phones’ caller ID function, use voice masking software, or transmit messages using teletypewriter technology to avoid law enforcement identifying them through their voice.[12]
On January 1, 2025, a threat actor rammed a crowd in New Orleans, Louisiana, with a pickup truck before leaving the vehicle to confront law enforcement with a firearm. The attacker attempted to plant and detonate fragmenting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) an hour before his attack, intending to cause large numbers of casualties.[13] The assailant carried out planned reconnaissance prior to January 1, visiting the attack site in New Orleans and recording footage of the area using Meta smart glasses.[14]
On January 8, 2025, during former President Jimmy Carter's state funeral, US Capitol Police arrested two individuals, one for attempting entry to the Capitol with a machete and three knives,[15] and the other for trying to set their vehicle on fire outside the building.[16]
Pro-Palestine demonstrations outside the Capitol in mid-2024 resulted in large protests and disorder. During Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s July 2024 visit to address a joint session of Congress, law enforcement made nine arrests alleging protestors’ violent conduct, including four individuals accused of assaulting a police officer outside Union Station.[17] A coalition of pro-Palestine organizations plans to demonstrate in Washington DC on Inauguration Day and announced their protest that occurred on January 16, 2025, at Euclid Street NW, about 40 minutes from the Capitol by public transit.[18]
Bad weather added challenges to the Certification Day and Jimmy Carter’s funeral, with some areas receiving over a foot of snow. On Monday, January 6, 2025, more than 1,200 flights arriving and departing Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and Dulles International Airport were canceled or delayed. Due to the snow, President Biden was driven to Joint Base Andrews in Maryland after the certification, instead of flying on Marine One.[19]
Local and federal officials anticipated that approximately 200,000 individuals would attend the event in Washington DC.[20] On January 17, 2025, Trump announced that the inauguration proceedings would be moved indoors due to forecasted cold weather, which officials expect to decrease the number of attendees. Trump announced that Capital One Arena would host a broadcast of the event for his supporters, which he plans to visit after the swearing-in ceremony.[21] Trump extended invitations to multiple foreign politicians, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, but their attendance is unconfirmed.[22] It was later announced that China’s Vice President Han Zheng would attend the event.[23] Other confirmed guests include US President Joe Biden, former US President Barack Obama, former US President George W. Bush, First Lady Laura Bush, the Clintons, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg.[24] The event's performers include Carrie Underwood, The Village People, and Lee Greenwood.[25]
Assessments
Threat actors will very likely target government officials, law enforcement, civilians attending the event, and elections-related personnel and infrastructure. Foreign officials and performing celebrities will likely become additional targets for attackers. In view of the substantial number of individuals expected to participate, security concerns are very likely considerable. These concerns will very likely include the risk of overcrowding, which will likely lead to harder access to emergency services in case of a crisis and increased vulnerabilities for attendees. Numerous attendees and the political nature of the event will very likely create a high-risk environment, likely to be targeted by politically motivated individuals.
Threat actors will very likely promote violence on online platforms and social media in response to political grievances. The use of online platforms and social media will very likely spread misinformation and disinformation concerning the inauguration, thereby furthering grievances that will likely motivate some extremist people to commit acts of violence. Potential attackers are likely to leave indicators, including manifestos, direct statements, or cryptic messages, of their plans to commit violence before perpetrating it.
Incoming Trump administration members, including the President-Elect, will very likely face continued safety threats. Lone actors or small groups will likely remain the most common profile of attackers. Technological developments and recent trends will likely increase these individuals' potential impact. Proliferating smart glasses and UAS technology will very likely enable a would-be attacker to thoroughly surveil their target before committing violence. Terrorists will likely continue to access explosive materials, raising the risk of mass casualty attacks. Widespread access to firearms and bladed weapons in the US will almost certainly persist, with some threat actors likely intending to use these weapons to attack the inauguration. Lone actors unwilling to commit to attacks who are within the grievance or violent ideation steps of the Pathway to Violence[26] will likely phone in bomb threats or leave suspicious bags in attempts to disrupt the event. These actions likely aim to spread security personnel across multiple locations, distracting them from essential threats. This scenario will likely increase law enforcement’s challenges, as they will very likely need to investigate every potential concerning action, straining their resources. Abruptly moving the event indoors will likely disrupt any attack plans focused on an outdoor setting but will likely introduce new risks due to the reduced time available for adapting and implementing security procedures and emergency plans.
The relative anonymity offered by spoofed phones is likely an attractive strategy for individuals aiming to create disruption and chaos without causing direct physical harm. The alarm caused by issued threats will likely divert law enforcement resources, likely increasing the risk that more credible but less conspicuous threats will succeed. Individuals intending to cause mass casualties and destruction with bombs will unlikely warn their targets, likely as a method of ensuring maximum harm.
Inauguration security will almost certainly tighten restrictions, limiting traffic movement and accessible roads due to the recent events in New Orleans and Las Vegas, likely disrupting business operations within the security perimeter and interrupting some locals’ routines. Road closures will almost certainly occur on roads surrounding the Capitol building and the White House. Security personnel will very likely heavily patrol access roads to the Capitol Hill area, the 1600 block of Pennsylvania Avenue NW, and the National Mall area to monitor for suspicious vehicles, likely deterring some locals from traveling and limiting business traffic. Trucks delivering supplies to businesses will likely have difficulty navigating to their destination if wide roads and high under-the-bridge passages are closed, likely disrupting the flow of supplies to some businesses.
A bad weather event would very likely cause flight and public transportation cancellations, very likely reducing the number of attendees from the general public. Inclement weather, like snow or heavy rain, will likely deter some participation in planned or spontaneous protests, very likely giving the security personnel room to direct attention toward threats with a bigger impact such as a terrorist attack. Attendees and protestors who gather outside the Capitol despite the ceremony moving indoors will likely experience the effects of harsh cold, very likely harming unprepared individuals. Poor weather will likely lead the president and high-value individuals attending the inauguration to travel by road, likely increasing the risk of protesters crowding and stopping their vehicles, providing an opportunity for threat actors’ attacks.
Large organized anti-Trump protests away from the Capitol neighborhood will likely draw some ideologically committed activists away from inauguration proceedings. The incentive for activists or protestors outside the organizing movements to attend the Capitol to directly engage with or disrupt proceedings will very likely persist, given the international profile and global media coverage of the inauguration. A large law enforcement presence will unlikely deter protestors seeking to disrupt the ceremony. Some protestors will likely view their arrest as helping their cause through media reporting on the event that highlights their actions. Protestors will likely use banners, chants, or symbols to disrupt proceedings, and some will likely attempt to trespass on restricted areas to further their goals. These attempts will likely lead to more security alerts and engage law enforcement resources during a busy event, likely increasing the risk of a more serious threat succeeding.
Future Implications
Explosive threats will very likely continue as lone actors sustain their access to training materials, very likely online. These threats will almost certainly require law enforcement to either retain specialized equipment and personnel for the foreseeable future or request National Guard support. The public will almost certainly continue undergoing bag searches, body scans when attending large events, and checks by specialized units, such as K-9 squads.
Recent lone actors' actions will very likely increase uncertainty about terrorists’ tactical and operational aims. Lack of central coordination or operational and strategic oversight over threat actors will likely lead to more random or less predictable threats. Lone actors will unlikely need to communicate their plans or intentions to execute their attacks, likely reducing law enforcement’s opportunities to detect threats before an attack. These disparate threats will very likely require intelligence practitioners in the law enforcement and intelligence communities to collect more data on more people of interest to identify threats and prevent attacks. Continued severe and uncertain threats will likely lead to the US government sustaining or increasing funding for law enforcement and intelligence agencies at federal, state, and local levels.
An attack on a highly visible event like the inauguration would almost certainly gain widespread attention from the media and reach domestic and international audiences. Foreign or domestic threat actors would very likely view America’s institutions that enforce the rule of law and political stability as weak in the event of an attack during the inauguration due to its symbolism of the democratic process. Threat actors would likely feel emboldened and tempted to sow division and launch attacks.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that federal law enforcement actively monitor protests and demonstrations through Washington DC on Inauguration Day for the presence of potential extremists
Capitol police and collaborating local law enforcement should ensure they have reviewed emergency preparedness plans and are appropriately briefed on procedures, expectations, and assignments.
In the event of a mass casualty attack, attendees should quickly reach the nearest safe location, and immediately contact law enforcement to notify them about the threat. Individuals should not assume that the presence of law enforcement indicates knowledge of ongoing attacks, and should contact appropriate authorities when necessary.
Attendees should become familiar with the Run-Hide-Fight action steps[27] to protect themselves and others in the event of a mass shooting or attack.
Security professionals and third-party contractors implementing and operating defensive technology should harden systems against cyber security attacks and deploy technologies that disrupt any attacks and mitigate downtime.
Residents should be prepared to shelter in place for extended periods, gathering any necessary supplies to mitigate the effects of the cold.
[1] Inauguration Closures, via Google Earth, by Samuel Pearson
[2] Bomb threats made against Trump cabinet nominees, BBC, November 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kj383k4ko
[3] Trump’s inauguration coincides with an unprecedented string of high-stakes security events in DC, AP, January 7, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-inauguration-security-a3df8ed878f2c0587f7038d68a0447f6
[4] Here's what to know about Donald Trump's inauguration, BBC, January 15, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kxzpwqq25o
[5] Trump’s inauguration coincides with an unprecedented string of high-stakes security events in DC, AP, January 7, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-inauguration-security-a3df8ed878f2c0587f7038d68a0447f6
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] BEHAVIORAL ASSESSMENT OF TRUMP’S ATTACKER, INTELLIGENCE GAPS, AND LESSONS LEARNED, by Gabriel Helupka, Nicholas Novak, Lewis Li, Samuel Pearson, Joe Pollard, William Adams
[9] Ryan Wesley Routh Indicted for Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump, US Department of Justice Office of Public Affairs, September 2024, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ryan-wesley-routh-indicted-attempted-assassination-former-president-trump
[10] Bomb threats made against Trump cabinet nominees, BBC, November 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6kj383k4ko
[11] Ibid
[12] Connecticut Democratic lawmakers report bomb threats on Thanksgiving, CBS, November 2024,
[13] New Orleans attacker’s bombs were designed to cause ‘absolute carnage’, NBC, January 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/new-orleans-attacker-tried-use-high-explosive-killed-hundreds-rcna186357
[14] New Orleans attacker recorded visits to city weeks earlier, wore Meta smart glasses during attack, NBC, January 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-orleans-attacker-meta-glasses-prior-visits-rcna186293
[15] Man with machete, 3 knives arrested outside Jimmy Carter viewing, WUSA9, January 2025, https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/knife-machete-us-capitol-jimmy-carter-lying-in-state/65-e12a5e66-ce06-4135-ad5c-4abcb82f6806
[16] Virginia man arrested for trying to set car on fire near US Capitol, WUSA9, January 2025, https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/bomb-squad-investigates-suspicious-vehicle-us-capitol/65-fb0dc68f-2765-4a01-8867-4e56d2e145ef
[17] Thousands fill Washington’s streets to protest Israel’s war in Gaza during Netanyahu visit, AP, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-gaza-war-congress-joint-session-9a7885972989b2397b49e5b971ffe0e0
[18] Party for Socialism and Liberation DC, Instagram, January 11, 2025, https://www.instagram.com/p/DEqOzGqylx1/?img_index=1
[19] Can Washington handle two weeks of high-security pomp along with a heavy burst of snow?, AP, January 2025, https://apnews.com/article/washington-dc-snow-carter-funeral-security-77c2a5163f6c03c7228b845f7283b0e0
[20] Here's what to know about Donald Trump's inauguration, BBC, January 15, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kxzpwqq25o
[21] Trump Moves Inauguration Indoors Amid Forecast of Extreme Cold, The New York Times, January 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/us/politics/trump-indoor-inauguration-cold.html
[22] Here are the confirmed attendees at Trump’s inauguration, The Hill, January 14, 2025, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5086155-trump-inauguration-attendees/
[23] China’s Vice President Han Zheng to attend Trump Inauguration, Reuters, January 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-vice-president-han-zheng-attend-trump-inauguration-2025-01-17/
[24] Here are the confirmed attendees at Trump’s inauguration, The Hill, January 14, 2025, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5086155-trump-inauguration-attendees/
[25] Here's what to know about Donald Trump's inauguration, BBC, January 15, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kxzpwqq25o
[26] The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) Pathway to Violence by Lydia Baccino
[27] Run.Hide.Fight Action Steps, Georgetown University, https://activeshooter.georgetown.edu/action/