Samuel Pearson, Jacob Robison, Amelia Bell, Noah Kuttymartin, Mercedes Scheible
Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
December 1, 2024
US Capitol Building[1]
Summary of Assessment
Washington DC will hold multiple significant political and apolitical events over the next three months, with the highest-risk events being the January 6, 2025 election certification and the January 20, 2025 presidential inauguration. DC very likely faces a heightened threat to its security due to the significant grievances, such as the imprisonment of January 6, 2021 Insurrection participants, against US government entities and the occurrence of multiple large events in December and January. Ideologically motivated threat actors will very likely choose the US Congress's certification of the 2024 election on January 6, the presidential inauguration, and government buildings as key dates and locations when planning attacks, some of which will likely include firearms, fireworks, or improvised explosives. These government buildings include the DC Central Detention Facility (CDF), the White House, the Department of State (DoS), the Department of the Treasury (USDT), the Department of Justice (DoJ), the headquarters (HQ) of the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). The presence of numerous high-profile federal entities very likely increases the threat to the city from violent disorder, threats, and attacks targeted at the US government.
Context of Concern
Washington DC, the seat of the US federal government faces multiple concerns from both ideological and criminal threat actors targeting institutions, events, and members of the public[2] Washington DC’s main prison, the CDF, has experienced daily, but decreasing protests since the January 6 Insurrection, regarding the continued imprisonment of participants.[3] Extremist accounts on social media regularly compare the CDF to a “Gulag,” alleging mistreatment.[4] Two principal suspects from the Insurrection as well as the individual who planted pipe bombs in the Capitol Hill neighborhood remain at large in the US.[5] An August 2024 review by the DOJ reported a 35% decrease in violent crimes in DC, citing data analysis and forensic techniques as key breakthroughs.[6]
The increased risk of politically and ideologically motivated violence within Washington DC threatens events taking place in the weeks before the Inauguration. These include:
Between December 11 and January 20, 2025: The Washington Capitals National Hockey League team and the Washington Wizards National Basketball Association team play 10 home games each at Capital One Arena.[7]
December 17, 2024: The Hot 99.5 Jingle Ball at Capital One Arena will feature headliners Meghan Trainor, Tate McCrae, Kesha, and Jason Derulo.[8]
December 22, 2024: The Washington Commanders National Football League team plays a home game at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland.[9]
January 6, 2025: A Joint Session of the Congress will certify the results of the Presidential Election at the US Capitol, designated by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as a National Special Security Event.[10] The same event and location that sparked the Insurrection[11] leading to charges against nearly 1,500 defendants..[12]
January 18, 2025: The All-American Inaugural Ball, a reception-style gala featuring an awards ceremony for public figures, will take place at the Hyatt Regency Washington on Capitol Hill to celebrate the inauguration of President-Elect Donald Trump.[13]
January 18, 2025: The Inaugural Peace Ball: Voices of Justice and Liberation will occur at the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture, featuring many congressional speakers and left-wing activists like Angela Davis, and Mehdi Hasan.[14]
January 20, 2025: President-Elect Donald Trump will take the oath of office on the steps of the US Capitol as the next President.[15]
January 20, 2025: Inauguration Day, multiple organizations and protestors will rally against US involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Cleveland, Ohio, Chicago, Illinois, and Seattle, Washington will experience similar protests on the same day.[16]
January 24, 2025: The 2025 March for Life pro-life event will occur throughout DC.[17]
Risks
High-profile government institutions and landmarks like the National Mall in Washington DC will very likely attract threats from December 2024 to January 2025. The US Capitol, the White House, and the headquarters of federal agencies such as the FBI and DOJ will almost certainly remain targets for political disruption. The proximity of these institutions to planned political events, such as the January 6, 2025 election certification and the January 20, 2025 presidential inauguration, very likely increases the overall threat to the city, particularly from ideologically motivated actors.
The symbolic significance of the January 6 election certification and the historical context of the Insurrection will very likely attract politically motivated groups to the Capitol. Such groups will likely exploit protests to act on ideological grievances, including alleged deep state manipulation, federal overreach, and harmful social change, likely escalating confrontations with law enforcement or counter-protesters.[18] National media focus on Washington DC will very likely ensure images of disorder or violence will spread widely, likely incentivizing extremists to commit violence to spread their message.
The incoming administration’s supporters will likely rally at the January 20, 2025, inauguration, with the presence of this administration’s political opponents likely escalating the risk of confrontations. Extremists will likely seek confrontations with organized protesters, with a roughly even chance of provoking violence depending on how effectively law enforcement manages the crowds. Acts of violence on Inauguration Day will very likely foster further political division as different factions blame others or justify their side’s actions, given the importance of the Inauguration to the peaceful transfer of power.
Ongoing protests at the CDF over the incarceration of Insurrection participants will likely remain a source of tension. These grievances, which focus on allegations of the state mistreating insurrectionists and jailing them as political prisoners, will likely inspire violent actions during key political events. Extremist groups will likely picket or demonstrate outside the CDF in larger numbers on and around Certification Day and Inauguration Day. Extremists or opportunistic threat actors will likely phone or email bomb threats to the CDF and the DOJ if insurrectionists remain imprisoned after January 20. Far-right narratives online will likely motivate some individuals to plan attacks. These attacks will likely involve firearms and easily obtainable low-yield explosives, such as fireworks, and, in some cases, improvised devices like pipe bombs.
The Inauguration Peace Ball, focusing on social justice and liberation, will likely attract left-wing activists and provoke counter-protests. The political polarization around this event will likely increase the potential for disruptions in areas with weaker security measures like subway stations, due to the disproportion between the large volume of subway users and the small number of security and policing officials. Given far-right extremists’ previously expressed desire to contest left-wing activism in public, and vice versa, attendees will likely face harassment and confrontation attempts by counter-protesters.
The large influx of people entering DC for political and apolitical events very likely creates exploitation opportunities for criminals targeting those unfamiliar with the city. Individuals from outside the capital have a roughly even chance of entering high-crime areas, likely increasing their risk of victimization to crimes such as mugging and assault. Criminals will very likely target women and the elderly, likely due to common perceptions of their vulnerability.
Protestors at the Inauguration Day pro-Palestine demonstration in DC will likely attempt to link the proceedings with the ongoing conflict in Palestine, likely by disrupting speeches or engaging with Trump supporters. Some Trump supporters will likely view these intentional disruptions as targeted actions against the president-elect and will likely confront the protestors, likely increasing the risk of physical altercations. Protestors will likely use social media to amplify their disruptions, likely to ensure their actions reach a broader audience. Protests and interruptions are likely to focus on key moments throughout Inauguration Day, such as the national anthem or the oath of office, to maximize visibility. Successful disruptions will very likely attract significant media coverage, almost certainly amplifying the cause.
Public venues hosting non-political events, such as Capital One Arena and the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture, will likely face secondary threats, including crowd management issues, transportation delays, and the spread of disinformation. These locations will almost certainly attract large and diverse crowds for events like the Jingle Ball and the Inaugural Peace Ball, increasing the risk of opportunistic criminal activity.
Potential Vulnerabilities
High-profile events like the January 6 certification and January 20 inauguration will likely strain local and federal law enforcement. There is a roughly even chance that these agencies leave some locations under-protected and likely respond slower to simultaneous incidents. While federal agencies will very likely continue improving intelligence-sharing, collaboration gaps between federal, state, and local agencies will likely lead to delayed responses or missed opportunities to prevent attacks.
Despite ongoing surveillance, lone actors or small, decentralized groups have a roughly even chance of evading detection to carry out attacks likely due to the many security needs in the city over the next couple weeks. As the July assassination attempt against Trump shows, lone actors can access drones, body armor, semi-automatic rifles, and explosives to inflict mass casualties. Large influxes of information like tips and calls will likely hamper early detection of these threats, likely creating intelligence gaps that elevate risk and increase police response times. Swatting attempts will very likely worsen the problem by injecting false information into the intelligence system, very likely wasting law enforcement's time and resources investigating false claims. These threats will almost certainly present a latent risk to DC and organizations within it over the long term, as individuals or groups will likely operate undetected for extended periods, likely building their capabilities. Without proactive identification and intervention, these actors will likely exploit vulnerabilities, likely launching attacks that disrupt critical infrastructure, government operations, or public safety.
Physical security measures, such as barriers and checkpoints, are likely predictable and vulnerable to exploitation by adversaries. The continued use of these static measures will likely lead threat actors to use innovative tactics, exploiting less physically protected areas. Potential threat actors will likely study and adapt to predictable static measures, likely utilizing surveillance to identify patterns and weaknesses in their design. This will likely result in the targeting of softer areas, such as access points or adjacent unprotected spaces, where countermeasures are likely insufficient or absent.
Large gatherings at key locations, like the National Mall, likely increase the risk of mass-casualty attacks and complicate crowd management. Threat actors intending violence against these events will likely take advantage of clear sightlines for shooting attacks, and the high concentration of individuals in confined spaces. These conditions will very likely reduce the public’s ability to defend themselves or escape danger. Participants in large non-political events, like sports events and concerts, will likely perceive them as safer than protests due to the known security presence and more clearly benign purpose compared to rallies for political change. This will likely reduce public vigilance and create opportunities for threat actors to infiltrate and attack for political purposes. A lack of public awareness of emergency procedures will likely hinder law enforcement's response to an attack due to confusion and panic.
The proximity of government buildings, transit systems, and other critical assets, such as the US Capitol, Union Station Amtrak, Metro Stations, and the Supreme Court, likely creates a cascading risk where an attack on one could disrupt multiple systems simultaneously. For example, an attack on Union Station on the evening of January 6, 2025, will very likely disrupt Metro transit throughout Northern DC, as well as Amtrak services arriving from the Northeastern US. This disruption will very likely prevent large crowds from moving through the area, very likely creating soft targets for secondary strikes as well as potential disorder around the Capitol arising from fear among large groups.
Both Washington DC area airports, Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) in Arlington and Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) will likely present distinct vulnerabilities likely due to their high-profile status and proximity to critical government and civilian infrastructure. Attackers likely targeting DCA aim to damage a hub near the national center and inflict economic losses by disrupting passenger and freight services to the Capital region. Those flying into DC for the inauguration will likely create busy conditions at airports. These busy conditions will likely combine with DCA’s dense airspace and pre-existing high volume of daily flights to create opportunities for insider threats, cyberattacks on air traffic systems, smuggling of prohibited items, or attacks. IAD, though farther from the city center, is a major international travel hub, likely exposing it to risks such as exploitation by transnational extremist networks or trafficking of explosives, firearms, or drugs. Both airports will likely face challenges from potential drone interference, perimeter security gaps, and the need to monitor and address emerging threats in coordination with federal, state, and local agencies.
Cyber attacks, including malware and disinformation, will likely continue compromising critical infrastructure systems like transport operations, likely disrupting critical communications and undermining public confidence. Threat actors will likely consider cyber approaches like malware to disrupt air travel. Comprehensive security measures will likely require enhanced screening and cyber defense upgrades to mitigate risks both in the coming weeks and over the long term. There is a roughly even chance that threat actors adopt a hybrid attack strategy, using cyber penetration to enable physical access. Security planners likely miss insider threats due to latent trust in personnel. In a worst-case scenario, trusted individuals with ulterior motives will likely use their access to key facilities or systems to compromise security.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Washington DC residents should report suspicious behavior in public spaces, such as individuals loitering outside buildings, photographing or noting the positions of security cameras and personnel, or the presence of drones near high-profile buildings, to the authorities.
Capitol Police and other local DC law enforcement agencies should prepare for attacks on apolitical targets like sports events and concerts, by increasing police presence at major transit hubs and vulnerable locations like Capital One Arena.
Individuals planning on attending, protesting, or counter-protesting political events like the Inauguration should carefully consider the safety risks associated with political activism, and comply with law enforcement officer’s instructions.
US federal agencies should establish intelligence-sharing with local and district law enforcement to ensure cohesive coordination, clarifying jurisdiction, approaches, and surveillance needs.
US federal investigative agencies like the FBI and DHS, closely monitor online activity regarding the upcoming certification and inauguration to mitigate potential threats better.
Agencies monitoring digital spaces should collaborate with specialized cyber agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to maximize the use of available tools.
[1] D.C. Guard supports Metropolitan Police during March for Israel on National Mall, by Master Sgt. Arthur Wright licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] Inauguration of the president of the United States, USA.gov, September 2024, https://www.usa.gov/inauguration
[3] For more than 2 years, these diehards have held a nightly vigil for jailed Jan. 6 rioters, CBC, September 2024, https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vigil-january-6-rioters-1.7336381
[4] @JakeLangJ6, X, October 28, 2024, https://x.com/JakeLangJ6/status/1851045471793660387
[5] U.S. Capitol Violence, Federal Bureau of Investigations, https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/capitol-violence
[6] 2024 DC Violent Crime Rate Decrease: A Fact Sheet, US Department of Justice, August 2024, https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/2024-dc-violent-crime-rate-decrease-fact-sheet
[7] Events, Capital One Arena, December 2024, https://www.capitalonearena.com/events
[8] HOT 99.5 Jingle Ball, iHeartRadio, December 2024, https://hot995.iheart.com/featured/hot995-jingle-ball/
[9] Washington Commanders, NFL, December 2024, https://www.commanders.com/schedule/
[10] Congress to get beefed-up security for electoral vote certification on Jan. 6, NBC, September 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/congress-get-enhanced-security-jan-6-2025-electoral-vote-count-rcna170747
[11] Inside the Jan 6 U.S. Capitol attack, Reuters, February 2024, https://www.reuters.com/pictures/inside-jan-6-us-capitol-attack-2024-02-06/
[12] Three Years Since the Jan. 6 Attack on the Capitol, US Department of Justice, January 2024, https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0#:~:text=Approximately%2011%20individuals%20have%20been,restricted%20federal%20building%20or%20grounds.
[13] All-American Inaugural Ball, All American Inaugural Ball, January 2025, https://allamericanball.com/?gad_source=1
[14] Inaugural Peace Ball, Smithsonian, January 2025, https://nmaahc.si.edu/events/upcoming?event_type_id=517&event_series_id=All
[15] 60th Presidential Inauguration, Government of the District of Columbia, https://inauguration.dc.gov/
[16] Find a Protest: Stop the Gaza Genocide, US Campaign for Palestinian Rights, December 2024, https://uscpr.org/oct-2023-protests/
[17] National March for Life, March for Life, December 2024, https://marchforlife.org/national-march-for-life/
[18] According to conspiracy theorists, the deep state is a conspiracy of senior government officials covertly controlling the US government, often co--operating with public figures such as George Soros or Bill Gates.