(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)
Samuel Pearson, Daniela De Luca, Lydia Baccino, NORTHCOM
Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
January 6, 2025
Winter Storm[1]
Current situation: The National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather warning, which will remain in effect from 0100 to 0700 local time, location-specific, on Tuesday, January 7, 2024. Heavy snow is expected with five to 10 inches accumulations in most areas and up to 16 inches in isolated locations. The Weather Service forecasts significant icing with ice accumulations of one-tenth of an inch and wind gusts reaching 30 mph. The National Weather Service has advised to “slow down and use caution when driving” and recommended to “keep extra flashlights, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency” when traveling.[2]
Locations impacted by this weather warning include but are not limited to:
Washington, District of Columbia
Baltimore, Maryland
Montgomery County, Maryland
Prince George’s County, Maryland
Alexandria, Virginia
Arlington County, Virginia
Fairfax County, Virginia[3]
January 6, 2025, is the certification of the 2024 Presidential election (Certification Day) in Washington DC, and marks the fourth January 6, 2021 Insurrection anniversary. The US Secret Service (USSS) declared Certification Day a National Special Security Event on September 11, 2024.[4]
Day/Time of event: January 6, 2025/0431 Local Time
What is the current threat:
Low temperatures will likely incentivize potential protestors to remain inside, reducing the strain on law enforcement resources by lowering turnout for political events occurring in DC, like those relating to Certification Day. Reduced numbers of protestors likely lower the risk of violence by lessening protestors’ feelings of strength in numbers.
Severe weather conditions will very likely strain emergency medical services, as more homeless or elderly people will very likely seek treatment for hypothermia or other cold-related illnesses or injuries.
Widespread travel disruptions are very likely, as primary roads will likely become hazardous from heavy snow accumulation, and untreated roads will almost certainly become impassable. The combination of snow and potential freezing drizzle will likely worsen visibility and compromise driving safety. In urban areas with regular traffic congestion, the chances of gridlocks blocking principal routes are very likely. The risk of accidents, including those caused by slippery roads and impaired driving, will likely exacerbate delays, extend closures, and prolonged traffic disruptions.
Icy roads will likely require law enforcement, fire, and ambulance services to reduce their speed while driving, likely increasing response times for incidents. This difficulty in navigating hazardous conditions will likely hinder the ability for a rapid response to converge resources for medical emergencies.
The storm’s impact on public infrastructure, in the form of power outages and blocked roads will likely challenge law enforcement’s response to criminal threats in the affected areas. These challenges will likely increase the security risks for residents.
The stress and isolation caused by extreme weather conditions will likely increase tensions, leading to a rise in violent incidents, including domestic violence. Frustration and anxiety will likely worsen aggressive behavior, while the lack of mobility will likely prevent victims from seeking refuge or escaping dangerous situations.
Malicious actors will likely exploit the chaos to impersonate utility workers or emergency responders, stealing money or gaining access to homes. They will likely offer false emergency repairs and snow removal, and solicit payments for non-existent services.
Who will it directly impact:
Drivers
Homeless people
Protestors
Local citizens
Small businesses and retailers
Emergency Medical Services (EMS) operating in the affected areas.
Local law enforcement, including Maryland State Police (MSP), Baltimore Police Department (BPD), Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) in Washington, DC, and US Capitol Police (USCP)
[1] Weather, generated by CTG member
[2] Watches, Warnings & Advisories: Winter Storm Warning, National Weather Service, January 2025, https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Winter%20Storm%20Warning
[3] Ibid
[4] 2025 Counting and Certification of Electoral Votes Designated a National Special Security Event, United States Secret Service (USSS), September 2024, https://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/releases/2024/09/2025-counting-and-certification-electoral-votes-designated-national#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%93%20The%202025%20Counting%20and,the%20Secretary%20of%20Homeland%20Security