December 5-11, 2024 | Issue 49 - EUCOM
Alberto Grosselli, Joe Everest, Leon Kille
Finley Thomas, Editor: Evan Beachler, Senior Editor
Armed Vehicle Convoy[1]
Date: December 6, 2024
Location: Athens, Greece
Parties involved: Greece; incumbent Greek conservative New Democracy (ND) government; Hellenic police; Greek citizens; Greek protesters; shot 15-year-old high school student, Alexandros Grigoropoulos; left-wing student groups; left-wing university organization, Agonistikes Kiniseis; youth wing of left political party Nea Aristera; Greek labor unions; Greek public sector unions
The event: Protesters clashed with a specially deployed and equipped 5,000 man-strong police force in central Athens on the 16th anniversary of a fatal police shooting that killed a high school student, leading to more than 60 people being detained and eight arrests.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The police’s highly militarized approach to the protests will very likely cause future anniversary demonstrations that occur on December 6 to be more violent. Left-wing student groups and far-left organizations, such as Agonistikes Kiniseis and the youth wing of Nea Aristera party, will very likely take more active roles in future protests, likely employing increasingly violent tactics like missile projective and arson. The police forces’ conduct during the protests will very likely reinforce left-wing organizations’ narratives of excessive police force, likely increasing the number of radicalized individuals who participate in future demonstrations, thus heightening future security risks. Athens being the center of the police’s operations to stop the demonstrations will likely cause future demonstrations to spread into multiple other cities, such as Thessaloniki, likely straining police resources during each anniversary.
The strong police response to the anniversary protests will very likely intensify wider criticism of the ND government policies. Law enforcement's suppression of left-wing student organizations and political parties during the riots will very likely be interpreted as increasing government oppression by other leftist entities, such as labor unions. The anniversary protests will likely inspire workers and other public sector unions to denounce various aspects of government policy by employing strikes and protests, very likely demanding concessions from the government in their respective fields. Large-scale protests and strikes will likely spread regionally, if not nationally, to achieve the desired effect, very likely forcing the government to allocate additional police forces to monitor gatherings and deter any potential eruption of violence.
Date: December 9, 2024
Location: Calenzano, Italy
Parties involved: Italy; Prato Public Prosecutor’s Office; Italian energy company, ENI; Tuscanian Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment (ARPAT); Tuscanian fire brigade; local police; search and rescue teams; forensic experts; missing individual; affected families; local owners of the damaged properties; local and national media outlets; major national Italian trade unions CGIL, CISL, and UIL; discontented workers in the chemical and energy industry
The event: An explosion at an ENI fuel depot facility left five people dead and 27 injured,[3] leading the local prosecutor’s office in Prato to open an investigation to ascertain the causes of the accident amid increasing calls demanding better workplace safety.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The local authorities will almost certainly maintain strict police and environmental supervision in the area to prevent further incidents from worsening the security situation. Police will almost certainly seal the fuel depot perimeter to allow forensic experts to collect evidence while preventing unauthorized entry and offering material support to the investigating teams. A fire brigade squad will very likely remain on standby near the facility, ready to intervene if the security situation worsens while assisting with removing debris. Despite ceasing the environmental pollution alert, ARPAT will very likely continue to conduct further probes and health inspections of air quality and waterways to ensure that tap water is not contaminated by hydrocarbons leaking into aquifers.
ENI will almost certainly suffer significant economic and reputational damage for the incident due to the number of casualties, the extent of the damage, and the media attention surrounding the explosion. The investigation into the incident will very likely result in a lengthy court trial, likely due to the complexity of the intervention in the area affected by the explosion. ENI will very likely cooperate with judicial authorities to minimize the reputational damage suffered, likely ultimately receiving a court order to make indemnity payments to the affected families and the owners of the damaged residential properties close to the facility. The authorities will likely continue sealing parts of the depot throughout the court proceedings, which will very likely cause significant operating costs and disruptions to ENI’s business, almost certainly reflecting negatively on the company’s revenues.
The incident will very likely prompt regional and national trade unions to take further action to pressure companies into improving their safety standards. Should the investigation reveal that corporate negligence caused the explosion, trade unions such as CISL will almost certainly organize prolonged strikes, very likely coordinating with other national trade unions such as CGIL and UIL to order country-wide strikes. Should investigation findings rule out corporate negligence, trade unions will unlikely be able to leverage the incident for further demonstrations, but will likely continue utilizing media coverage of the situation to draw attention to their workplace safety demands. Increasing media pressure and discontent workers at similar fuel depot facilities will likely force ENI to undertake security reviews, increase investment in training and safety protocols, and organize security inspections as part of its commitment to ensuring workers’ well-being in response to the increasing pressure by media outlets and discontent workers at similar fuel depots.
[1] NOBLE JUMP 17, by Sargent Patsidis Isaak, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] Clashes break out in Athens after march to mark 2008 student killing by police, Reuters, December 2024,
https://www.ansa.it/toscana/notizie/2024/12/10/ritrovati-i-corpi-di-due-dei-tre-dispersi-nellesplosione-di-calenzano_ec212d9c-fc53-4a84-968c-31ce54887697.html (Translated by Google)
[4] Blast at Italian fuel depot near Florence kills two, injures nine, Reuters, December 2024,