Oliver Waters, Dominic Bianco, Jacob Robison, NORTHCOM
Samantha Mikulskis, Alice Cian, Clémence Van Damme, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
September 25, 2024
Ballots[1]
Introduction
Far-right militia groups in the US are increasing their presence on social media in preparation for the 2024 US presidential election.[2] During the 2020 election, far-right groups like the Oath Keepers and Three Percenters were explicit about using violence to achieve their goals, particularly during the January 6, 2021 Insurrection.[3] Throughout the election cycle, these groups will likely use political violence against voters, political candidates, and election workers. Oathkeepers and Three Percenters will likely collaborate with other far-right groups to support Trump’s campaign and perpetrate further violence toward meeting their objectives. Voters, public officials, and law enforcement at all levels must recognize these threats as the country prepares to select a new president, with action from these groups becoming increasingly likely. Far-right militia groups have the potential to cause large-scale violence and instability, which will likely be prevented by law enforcement through understanding where and when vulnerabilities lie.
Summary
After former President Trump lost the November 2020 elections, Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes expressed that Trump would require their armed support.[4] The group stockpiled weapons at a Virginia hotel before the Insurrection and provided security for Trump allies on January 6.[5] Since the Insurrection, multiple arrests of prominent militia figures have occurred including that of Stewart Rhodes, who was sentenced to 18 years in May 2023 on charges of seditious conspiracy due to his involvement in the Insurrection.[6] Despite these arrests, militias remain a threat, with around 200 anti-government and far-right extremist Facebook groups being active in May 2024.[7] The largest of these groups held over 2,000 members.[8]
In July 2024, Steve Bannon, a former top adviser for Trump claimed there was a “Maga army” that would persist until Trump regained the presidency.[9] Three Percenter militia members have reiterated Trump and Bannon’s rhetoric on Telegram, further suggesting that they would be willing to use violence against voting centers to support Trump.[10] The leaders of other groups, such as the National American Patriot and Liberty Movement (NAPALM), view the Insurrection as the opening battle of an ongoing second American civil war, with their rhetoric on Telegram, inciting violence against President Biden’s 2024 election campaign.[11] Estimates suggest that NAPALM is reaching a large audience with approximately 2,500 supporters, with separate Telegram channels to coordinate with militias in all 50 states.[12]
Analysis
Militia groups will very likely encourage political violence in support of former President Trump’s election campaign. Oathkeepers and Three Percenters will likely maintain contact with Trump allies, likely continuing to provide personal security for mainstream far-right leaders at political rallies and demonstrations. Militia actors will likely target individuals they perceive as partaking in election rigging, likely harassing Democrat voters and leaders, and election workers. This will likely occur in swing states and those Republicans will likely lose. Should these efforts be unsuccessful, Militia groups will likely attempt a second Insurrection, to prevent the ratification of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as president. Oathkeepers and Three Percenters will likely stockpile weapons necessary to escalate a potential insurrection through large-scale violence using urban guerrilla tactics like ambushes and hit-and-run attacks. They will likely openly carry weapons at political rallies to intimidate and threaten elected officials, law enforcement, and federal government workers.
Militia groups will likely support other far-right groups, including the Proud Boys and the National Socialist Movement (NSM) during the election period. Oathkeepers and Three Percenters’ emphasis on election fraud claims is likely compatible with other conspiratory ideologies due to its emphasis on perceived outside forces posing a threat to American institutions. Militias will likely engage with other extremist narratives including the conspiracy theory QAnon, Great Replacement Theory, and anti-immigration sentiments. Militia groups will very likely attend the rallies of other far-right movements, including those led by anti-abortion, white nationalist, and misogynist groups, in the lead-up to the election. Militias will likely train other far-right groups in tactics necessary in case of an escalation of political violence. Tactics taught will likely include riflery, kidnapping, and insurrection techniques including propaganda and the seizure of government buildings and infrastructure.
Recommendations
CTG recommends that all levels of law enforcement implement an elevated security presence for election officials, postal workers, voting centers, Democratic and Republican candidates, and leaders at local and national levels. Local law enforcement should prepare to respond quickly to potential militia violence near polling stations and postal ballot processing facilities. Local police departments should assign security details to all candidates running for county and state-level positions to ensure safe transit to election venues. Law enforcement should avoid overt security measures where possible, to prevent voters from being intimidated or dissuaded from voting.
Federal law enforcement including the US Secret Service (USSS) should increase security presence in Washington DC in the weeks leading up to the elections, as well as the day of and following the certification of the president-elect. Government buildings, including the Capitol and White House, where elected officials are likely to ratify election results should receive additional security details. Local and national law enforcement agencies, including the District of Columbia Metropolitan Police Department (MPD), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the USSS, should provide additional manpower to maximize resources available for security operations.
Law enforcement agencies should increase surveillance of hotels and other businesses around Washington DC in the lead-up to the election to prevent militias from stockpiling weapons. The Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (ATF), the FBI, and the National Security Agency (NSA) should monitor the sale of firearms on the dark web and social media to inform local law enforcement of potential dangers. Law enforcement agencies should monitor far-right social media spaces on Gab, Truth Social, Telegram, X, and Facebook months before election ratification to identify militias’ efforts to disrupt democratic processes.
Voters should remain aware of the potential presence of groups seeking to disrupt the voting process before and during Election Day. In swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, voters should be mindful of their surroundings and exercise caution in who they express their voting preferences while traveling to and from polling stations. To minimize potential risks, voters should fill out necessary paperwork and ballots at home, reducing the time spent at polling locations. If civilians notice concerning behavior at a polling station, they should avoid directly engaging these groups or individuals and maintain a safe distance, contacting local authorities if needed.
[1] Iraqi Referendum 1, by Sgt. Ryan S. Scranton, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] Extremist Militias Are Coordinating in More Than 100, Facebook Groups, WIRED Magazine,May 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/extremist-militias-are-coordinating-on-facebook/
[3] Oath Keepers leader said Trump 'will need us and our rifles', U.S. court hears, Reuters, October 2022, https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/oath-keepers-leader-said-trump-will-need-us-our-rifles-2022-10-04/
[4] Ibid
[5] New evidence reveals coordination between Oath Keepers, Three Percenters on Jan. 6, NBC, May 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/new-evidence-reveals-coordination-oath-keepers-three-percenters-jan-6-rcna30355
[6] “Oath Keeper founder Steward Rhodes sentenced to 18 years for seditious conspiracy in Jan. 6 attack, AP, May 2023,
[7] Extremist Militias Are Coordinating in More Than 100, Facebook Groups, WIRED Magazine, May 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/extremist-militias-are-coordinating-on-facebook/
[8] Ibid
[9] Steve Bannon says 'Maga army' ready, as he reports to prison, BBC,July 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80ek470d99o
[10] Armed and Underground: Inside the Turbulent, Secret World of an American Militia, Pro-Publica, August, 2024,https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-secret-ap3-militia-american-patriots-three-percent
[11] A January 6 Rioter Is Leading an Armed National Militia From Prison, Wired,June 2024, https://www.wired.com/story/january-6-rioter-leading-armed-national-militia-from-prison/
[12] Ibid
Opmerkingen