Martina Sclaverano, Alice Cian, Itamar Raizman, Ludovica Leccese, Martina Elena Nitti, Sabrina Bernardo, Weapons & Tactics Team, Behavior/Leadership Team, Extremism Team,
Angelina Sammarco, Archie Archie, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
December 19, 2024
Holy See Flag[1]
Summary of Assessment
Rome anticipates significant logistical and security challenges during the 2025 Jubilee Year due to the expected arrival of 35 million pilgrims. This event’s spiritual significance, including opportunities for indulgences through prayer and pilgrimage, will likely draw large crowds to key religious sites such as St. Peter’s Square. The city’s infrastructure, such as transportation and emergency services, will almost certainly face immense strain. The heightened presence of religious leaders, media, and pilgrims will likely lead to opportunistic crimes and terrorist threats. Failure to address these risks could very likely create long-term implications for Rome’s ability to host future global religious gatherings.
Context of Concern
Rome is a global cultural hub known for its historical landmarks and religious importance, drawing in millions of tourists annually. The Year of Jubilee, a Catholic celebration observed every 25 years and lasting a full year, will start on December 24, 2024.[2] It will officially commence with the opening of the Holy Door at the Papal Basilica of St. Peter in Rome, Italy, followed by a Papal Mass broadcast to pilgrims via projectors and screens in the square.[3] After the opening of the Holy Door, the Jubilee calendar includes the opening of Rebibbia Prison’s Holy Door on December 26, as well as St. John Lateran's, St. Mary Major's, and St. Paul's Outside the Walls respectively on December 29, January 1, and January 5.[4] Multiple events in the following months include the participation of political institutions and armed forces, such as the Jubilee of the Armed Forces, Police, and Security on February 8 and 9, and the Jubilee of Governments on June 20-22.[5] Throughout the Jubilee Year, Rome expects approximately 35 million pilgrims in addition to its usual number of tourists.[6]
Violent crime rates in the city are low, yet nonviolent crimes such as pickpocketing and fraud are common, particularly in crowded areas.[7] As of 2023, Rome had a crime rate of 6,073.6 per 100,000 inhabitants.[8] In 2024, the city of Rome registered more than 86,000 thefts, 2500 burglaries, and 11,000 scams.[9] The local tourism industry is also associated with the influence of the Ndrangheta mafia clan, with thousands of companies vulnerable to mafia-related crimes.[10] The city has faced various security challenges, including organized crime, large protests, and heightened terrorism risks during high-profile gatherings. In 2016, the city implemented extensive security measures to address concerns over ISIS-inspired attacks, establishing military patrols, increasing surveillance, and vehicle barriers. These precautions reflect Rome’s status as both a global pilgrimage site and a symbolic target for extremist groups.[11]
Holy Door at St Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City[12]
National law enforcement developed a specific security plan for the Holy Year, which involves increased street patrols and enhanced monitoring of metro stations, particularly those near major monuments such as the Colosseum and the Trevi Fountain. The security plan includes dedicated security measures for specific events and appointments throughout the year, characterized by different levels of security based on the proximity to event locations.[13] Sensitive areas, including the surroundings of St. Peter’s Square, will be secured with anti-drone stations, metal detectors, and mobile motorized barriers.[14] The Center for Cyber Security adopted increased virtual security measures to protect individual events and the strategic digital infrastructures of the country.[15]
Timeline of most relevant events[16]
December 24: Opening of the Holy Door of St. Peter’s Basilica
December 26: Opening of Holy Door at Rebibbia Prison
December 29: Opening of Holy Door at St. John Lateran
January 1, 2025: Opening of Holy Door at St. Mary Major
January 5, 2025: Opening of Holy Door at St. Paul's Outside the Walls
January 27 - 29, 2025: Presidents of Episcopal Commissions for Communications and Directors of National Communications Offices
February 8 - 9, 2025: Jubilee of the Armed Forces, Police, and Security
March 28, 2025: 24 Hours for the Lord
April 5 - 6, 2025: Jubilee of the Sick and the World of Health
April 17 - 19, 2025: SPQR Cup Tournament
May 1 - 4, 2025: Jubilee of Workers
May 3, 2025: Pilgrimage of the UCID - Christian Union of Entrepreneurs and Directors
May 4 - 5, 2025: Jubilee of Entrepreneurs
May 9, 2025: Commemoration of the New Martyrs for the Faith
May 12 - 14, 2025: Jubilee of the Eastern Churches
May 30, 2025 - June 1, 2025: Jubilee of Families, Grandparents, and the Elderly
June 7 - 8, 2025: Jubilee of Ecclesial Movements, Associations, and New Communities
June 9, 2025: Jubilee of the Holy See
June 20 - 22, 2025: Jubilee of Governments
June 25 - 27, 2025: Jubilee of Priests
June 25, 2025: Jubilee of Bishops
June 28, 2025: Jubilee of the Greek-Catholic Ukrainian Church
July 28, 2025 - August 3, 2025: Jubilee of Youth
September 7, 2025: Canonizations
September 12 - 13, 2025: World Meeting on Human Fraternity
September 12 - 13, 2025: 1700th Anniversary of the Council of Nicaea
September 20, 2025: Jubilee of Justice
October 4 - 5, 2025: Jubilee of Migrants
October 8 - 9, 2025: Jubilee of Consecrated Life
November 16, 2025: Jubilee of the Poor
December 14, 2025: Jubilee of Prisoners
Risks
The Italian anarchist movement, particularly the Federazione Anarchica Informale/Fronte Rivoluzionario Internazionale (FAI/FRI), will likely target Jubilee-related events to demonstrate opposition to conservative Catholic values and the Catholic Church as an institution. Anarchist groups very likely oppose the Catholic Church due to the influence it exerts on governmental choices in Italy, including anti-abortion policies, gender stereotypes, and the celebration of the traditional family. There is a roughly even chance that anarchist committees will engage in increasingly disruptive actions around the dates of the Jubilee of Families, Grandparents, and the Elderly, as it symbolizes the traditional hierarchical values anarchists oppose. In response to the protocol prohibiting strikes during and around the main Jubilee events, anarchist groups will likely engage in protests and infrastructure blockades in the days leading up to the inauguration celebrations. Such oppositionary actions will likely include arson, traffic and public transport blockades, and sit-ins.
While the far-right extremist threat is not high in Italy, the recent arrest of members of the neo-nazi group Werwolf Division in Bologna likely shows an increase in far-right activities, with a roughly even chance of members targeting Jubilee-related events. The Werwolf Division showed strong opposition to the current world order and clear plans to subvert the Italian government to establish an authoritarian regime. The Catholic Church has a roughly even chance of becoming a target of organized attacks by neonazi groups including Werwolf Division as an institution deeply entrenched with the Italian government. With the Jubilee conveying Catholic Christians from all around the globe, including black, latinos, and asian people, it will likely attract the attention of lone-wolf racist actors aiming to target racial minorities guided by the ideals of an Arian world and society.
It is likely that protests and riots will result in clashes between Christian individuals and groups of different religions. Due to the presence of Muslim communities in Rome, there is a roughly even chance that some extremist groups adhering to radical Islamist beliefs will initiate protests and riots aimed at challenging Christianism. These clashes have a roughly even chance of being exacerbated by the very likely pro-Palestine protests throughout the year, almost certainly mixing religion-based extremists with political activists.
The openness of the location, due to the strategic position of St. Peter’s Basilica and its square, close to major streets and Rome’s historic center, will very likely enhance the flow of individuals attempting to access Vatican City. The presence of the colonnade around St. Peter’s Square and the several access points around the city walls will likely complicate the supervisory duties of local authorities and the military during main events, very likely impacting threat monitoring and emergency assistance. Main access points, such as Piazza del Sant’Uffizio, Borgo Santo Spirito, Via della Conciliazione, Via dei Corridori, and Via di Porta Angelica, will very likely serve as the main escape routes in case of evacuations, as they are the easiest and quickest routes to exit Vatican City from the square. While police forces and the military will likely massively preside over Vatican City and its access routes on December 24, they will likely leave critical points and areas across Rome more susceptible to risks and threats due to the increase in tourism and seasonal returnees over the Christmas period. Crucial areas and monuments whose security will likely suffer from overcrowding and a deficit in military presence include the Colosseum, Via Dei Fori Imperiali, Piazza Venezia, Piazza del Campidoglio, Via del Corso, Piazza del Popolo, Via Del Plebiscito, Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, and Via dei Sabini.
The expected influx of pilgrims and tourists during the Jubilee Year will very likely exacerbate existing risks for citizens, likely increasing pickpocketing and petty crime in crowded areas, including metro stations, tourist sites, and religious landmarks. Protests against overtourism are also very likely, as some groups are likely to express dissatisfaction over the strain placed on local communities, housing, and public resources. Religious tensions are very likely to increase, with the presence of large numbers of Catholics likely fueling conflicts with other religious or ideological groups. The overwhelming number of visitors will very likely stretch the city's transport system to its limits, causing severe congestion, delays, and overcrowding, which could very likely disrupt daily commuting for citizens. With a limited police presence in non-Jubilee areas, certain neighborhoods will likely become more vulnerable to crime, likely further contributing to the sense of insecurity among the local population.
Throughout the Jubilee Year, citizens will almost certainly also face a high volume of cyber-related threats, including web defacement campaigns, DDoS attacks, and online scams targeting both the event and pilgrims. Hacktivist groups or politically motivated entities will likely attempt to disrupt the event's online presence, including defacing official websites or launching DDoS attacks that will very likely hinder access to event information or live-streamed ceremonies. Cybercriminals will very likely exploit the large volume of online transactions, such as pilgrimage bookings, donations, or event-related purchases, to perpetrate phishing scams, identity theft, and financial fraud aimed at obtaining personal and financial data from unsuspecting individuals.
Potential Vulnerabilities
The sheer volume of pilgrims and tourists presents an enormous logistical challenge that will likely stretch the city's security apparatus thin, particularly during high-profile events such as the opening ceremony at St. Peter’s Square. The potential over-reliance on traditional security measures, like increased patrolling and physical barriers around key locations, likely represents a significant vulnerability. While vehicle barriers and metal detectors will likely mitigate certain threats, these measures will very likely not be sufficient to prevent a more sophisticated or multi-layered attack, such as an IED or a terrorist using public transport to access sensitive locations. The high number of entry and exit points around St. Peter’s Square and Vatican City likely creates opportunities for attackers to exploit gaps in perimeter security, especially if those routes are not properly monitored during large crowd movements.
The city's transport infrastructure is another key vulnerability. Overcrowded metro stations, trains, and buses will likely become choke points for threats ranging from terrorist attacks to criminal activities. In the event of a large-scale evacuation or emergency, these transport hubs will very likely become overwhelmed, with insufficient capacity for timely and orderly evacuation. This also applies to public health concerns, as any large gathering of people will likely create vulnerabilities for mass health-related incidents, especially with a lack of contingency planning for such situations.
There is a roughly even chance that additional units expected to assist local law enforcement during the Jubilee Year will not be adequately trained or familiar with the specific operational environment in Rome, very likely leading to coordination challenges and slower response times. With many security personnel focused on the main religious sites, areas outside of these key locations will likely experience a lack of visible security presence, likely creating opportunities for attacks or unrest in less-patrolled districts. Coordination and response during a potential attack or crisis will very likely face complications due to the overwhelming presence of media, pilgrims, and religious leaders. The presence of these groups will likely significantly complicate evacuation and response efforts, as mass panic and the need to protect high-profile individuals will likely impair effective crowd management and delay critical interventions.
The reliance on digital infrastructure for event coordination, ticketing, and live-streaming likely presents another vulnerability. While the cybersecurity plan has been bolstered, the vast number of online interactions will very likely overwhelm existing defenses, making it very likely that cybercriminals or hacktivist groups will successfully execute DDoS attacks, exploit vulnerabilities in mobile apps, or deploy phishing schemes targeting pilgrims. The integration of digital systems for communication and control will likely make centralized infrastructure prone to cascading failures should one component of the system be compromised or shut down.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends mitigating the vulnerability of St. Peter’s Square and Vatican City. Surveillance around all access points should be strengthened, especially in high-traffic areas. CTG also recommends increasing the use of advanced surveillance technologies, such as facial recognition or AI-based crowd monitoring systems. This should be supplemented with more comprehensive physical security measures, including additional mobile barriers and enhanced patrolling of secondary and less-monitored access routes. Increased deployment of tactical units around key locations will ensure a rapid response to any threat.
To mitigate risks associated with overcrowded transport hubs, the frequency and capacity of public transport, particularly during peak pilgrimage periods, should be increased. Temporary, dedicated pilgrimage routes should be established to prevent congestion in high-traffic metro stations and major intersections. Clear evacuation plans should be developed for major transport hubs, with staff trained to guide citizens and pilgrims in case of emergency.
Contingency plans for evacuations in case of large-scale incidents should be implemented. These plans should consider the dynamics of large crowds, available escape routes, and the speed of emergency services' response. Specialized evacuation teams, trained in crowd control and first-aid procedures, should be deployed in high-risk areas, with designated safe zones and medical facilities equipped for large numbers of casualties.
All additional law enforcement units, especially those brought in from other regions or agencies, should be well-integrated into the local security infrastructure. This includes detailed briefings on the city's geography, threat landscape, and protocols for handling high-profile events. Joint training exercises should be conducted to improve communication, coordination, and response times during potential crises. Law enforcement personnel should also receive specialized training in crowd control, particularly in managing large and diverse groups of pilgrims, to minimize the risks of stampedes or other crowd-related incidents.
Intelligence-sharing between domestic and international agencies should be strengthened, particularly related to threats from extremist groups or criminal organizations. Intelligence services should focus on monitoring any potential indicators of violence or disruptions linked to anarchist, pro-Palestinian, or extremist political movements, and prioritize gathering information related to possible threats against religious figures and pilgrimage events. Preemptive actions, including the surveillance of online activity and monitoring of extremist forums, should be taken to identify potential disruptors.
To ensure that both pilgrims and residents are aware of potential threats, a city-wide awareness campaign on security and safety practices should be launched, focusing on common threats such as pickpocketing, cybercrime, and potential extremist activities. Public service announcements, social media posts, and collaboration with local organizations can be effective in disseminating this information to both locals and visitors.
Given the high likelihood of cyber-related threats, such as DDoS attacks and phishing scams, robust digital defenses across all event-related platforms should be implemented with the use of advanced anti-DDoS systems, multi-factor authentication for ticketing and donation platforms, and the establishment of a cyber emergency response team to address any breaches or attacks in real-time. Widespread public awareness campaigns to warn pilgrims about common cyber threats, such as fake ticket sales and fraudulent donation requests, should be created.
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[1] Holy See (Vatican City), by CIA World Factbook, licensed under Public Domain
[2] Year of Jubilee, Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Year-of-Jubilee
[3] Opening of the Holy Door of Saint Peter’s Basilica, Iubilaeum 2025, https://www.iubilaeum2025.va/en/pellegrinaggio/calendario-giubileo/GrandiEventi/Apertura-Porta-Santa-di-San-Pietro.html
[4] Jubilee 2025 General Calendar, Iubilaeum2025, https://www.iubilaeum2025.va/en/calendario/calendario-generale.html
[5] Ibid
[6] Risk of overbooking for Jubilee and Olympics, Ansa, March 2024, https://www.ansa.it/canale_viaggi/notizie/news/2024/03/27/rischio-overbooking-per-giubileo-e-olimpiadi_5cbfc886-5934-42d8-ac3d-dbb9d8d09646.html
[7] Crime in Italy, Statista, https://www.statista.com/topics/4051/crime-in-italy/#topicOverview
[8] Leading provinces for crime rate in Italy in 2023, Statista,September 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/664040/top-provinces-for-crime-rate-italy/
[9] Procura, a Roma nel 2024 denunciati 86mila furti, ANSA, December 2024, https://www.ansa.it/lazio/notizie/2024/12/13/procura-a-roma-nel-2024-denunciati-86mila-furti_df066c0e-feec-4bb1-bf91-1ab0fb7f5c05.html (translated by Google)
[10] Tourism generates 3.3 bn a year for mafia - report, ANSA English, December 2024, https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2024/12/10/tourism-generates-3.3-bn-a-year-for-mafia-report_65a411fd-5638-4cc2-8cce-ace38ac209cf.html
[11] Fight Against Terrorism, Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, https://www.esteri.it/en/politica-estera-e-cooperazione-allo-sviluppo/temi_globali/lotta_terrorismo/
[12] Vatican City via Google Earth, created by a CTG member
[13] Police Headquarters launches the security plan for the Jubilee of Hope 2025. Test Day on December 8, Questura Polizia di Stato, December 2024, https://questure.poliziadistato.it/it/Roma/articolo/1998674efffcf14cd490427183
[14] A safe jubilee, armored events and stop pickpockets, ANSA, November 2024, https://www.ansa.it/vaticano/notizie/giubileo_a_roma/2024/11/30/ansaun-giubileo-sicuro-eventi-blindati-e-stop-borseggiatori_55059a84-b75e-4b45-a492-32192be553eb.html
[15] Police Headquarters launches the security plan for the Jubilee of Hope 2025. Test Day on December 8, Questura Polizia di Stato, December 2024, https://questure.poliziadistato.it/it/Roma/articolo/1998674efffcf14cd490427183
[16] Jubilee 2025 General Calendar, Iubilaeum 2025, December 2024, https://www.iubilaeum2025.va/en/calendario/calendario-generale.html