July 25-31, 2024 | Issue 30 - NORTHCOM/SOUTHCOM
Marta Vanti, Janthe Van Schaik, Enrico Dal Cin, Hae Lim Park, Lydia Baccino, Madeline Thompson
Jessica Wilson, Editor; Alya Fathia Fitri, Senior Editor
Bomber doing patrol in International Airspace[1]
Date: July 26, 2024
Location: Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)
Parties involved: U.S. Department of Defense (DoD); U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD); Russian military; Chinese military; Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)
The event: Russian and Chinese bombers conduct a joint patrol in international airspace off the coast of Alaska for the first time, signaling expanding military cooperation between the two nations. U.S. and Canadian fighter jets tracked and intercepted the two Russian Tupolev Tu-95 bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers, which did not enter U.S. airspace but came within approximately 200 miles of the Alaskan coast. Austin expresses concerns about this military cooperation, particularly in the context of China potentially supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine.[2] China intends to create a maritime passage, termed the 'Polar Silk Road', to access mineral resources in the Arctic.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The U.S. will likely enhance its security architecture in the Arctic, likely to prevent China and Russia's cooperation in achieving their objectives and strategies. The US will likely extend surveillance capabilities with its partners in NATO Arctic countries, likely investing in commercial and institutional satellite capabilities to establish interconnected reconnaissance. This collaboration will aim to strive for operational readiness and deterrence through information sharing and interoperability, likely deploying unmanned aerial assets for surveillance, to achieve situational awareness.
China and Russia will likely increase cooperation in joint naval exercises in the Arctic very likely due to a common interest in commercial shipping routes and gaining access to oil and gas resources. China will likely invest in Russian operations and energy export infrastructure to ensure access to lucrative energy resources. Russia will likely utilize this funding to develop global positioning system jamming operations, which will likely reduce effective operational aviation responses from the US and NATO states. This situation will likely provide China with opportune circumstances to increase their influence within the Arctic by exploiting new shipping routes to further their Polar Silk Strategy.
Date: July 27, 2024
Location: Toribío, Cauca Department, Colombia
Parties involved: Colombia; Colombian National Army; Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia People's Army (FARC); Dagoberto Ramos; Alleged leader of the Dagoberto Ramos structure Alias Maicol; Front 57; Suárez population;
The event: An armed attack on a vehicle kills Alias Maicol and injures an unidentified woman. Following the incident, local community members call for the withdrawal of the Colombian National Army. El País de Cali reports that this attack is part of an ongoing internal power struggle between Dagoberto Ramos and Front 57 divisions of the FARC. The National Army announced that Maicol died following the attack attributed to Front 57 on the road to Toribío.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The internal conflict between non-state actors will likely continue in Cauca, very likely enabled by the withdrawal of the Colombian National Army. Armed groups will likely continue using guerilla methods to attack members of leadership and the operations capacity of the rivaling parties. Local authorities will likely request assistance from the Colombian National Army to boost their manpower as the use of gun and cylinder bomb attacks in guerilla tactics by factions of non-state organizations will place further pressure on local security forces due to their unpredictable nature.
The clash between Front 57 and the Dagoberto Structure will likely continue targeting local rural communities in Northern Cauca. The rural communities living in proximity of Front 57 territory will likely be vulnerable to future clashes with the Dagoberto Structure due to the lack of security and public force presence. The vacuum of public force authority will likely facilitate the intimidation of local community leaders who favor Colombia’s peace process. This situation will likely allow the Front 57 to spread to more municipalities in Northern Cauca, likely using the current communities as power bases.
[1] Bomber Task Force 20-1 - Barents Sea Mission, by Staff Sgt. Trevor McBride, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)
[2] Chinese and Russian bombers patrolling off Alaska raise concerns about growing military cooperation, The Associated Press, July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-us-military-planes-norad-alaska-4994b489e75ae636b4a4cd5bb40f91ac
[3] Pentagon concerned at growing Arctic cooperation between China and Russia, Reuters, July 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/growing-cooperation-between-russia-china-arctic-pentagon-says-2024-07-23/
[4] Asesinan a alias Maicol de las disidencias de las Farc en Toribío (Cauca) durante un atentado, Infobae, July 2024,https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2024/07/28/asesinan-a-alias-maicol-de-las-disidencias-de-las-farc-en-toribio-cauca-durante-un-atentado/ (Translated by Google)
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