Region of Concern: India; Pakistan
Written By Tejas Vaidya; Edited by Elena Alice Rossetti and Cameron Munoz
Date: September 18, 2023
Map of Kashmir[1]
Event: Monday marked the sixth day of the gunfight between the Indian Army and terrorists hiding in the Garole forests in the Kokernag, Anantnag district of Jammu and Kashmir.[2] On Sunday, these “highly-trained militants” transitioned from urban militancy to jungle warfare.[3] Army-led security forces employed drones and helicopters for aerial forest surveillance to uncover cave-like hideouts[4]. They fired mortars and rockets on suspected Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militants.[5] The Director General of Police (DGP) and General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the Indian Army's 15 Corps are monitoring the operation. Indian armed forces extended the security cordon to prevent terrorists from slipping into civilian areas.[6]
Significance: As the terrorists shift their attack from urban militancy to jungle warfare, they are likely trained to operate in forests and mountainous terrains using guerilla tactics. This gunfight was very likely intended to disrupt the New Delhi G20 summit and divert media attention. Terrorists will likely use their tactical capabilities to conduct prolonged operations, resist counterterrorism efforts, and enhance LeT’s reputation to recruit new members. The alleged LeT militants’ involvement will very likely escalate tensions between India and Pakistan. India will very likely conduct retaliation attacks in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, likely in the Muzafarabad region. The cross-border terrorist movement will very likely continue as there is almost no chance security forces can neutralize transnational terrorist flow due to geographical complexities such as dense forest terrain, high mountains, valleys, and porous national borders. LeT will very likely adapt its strategy by attacking soft targets like civilians, schools, banks, and other governmental institutions to maintain a presence in the Kashmir region while avoiding confrontation with Indian security forces.
Recommendations: CTG recommends that Indian security forces disrupt communication networks, shut down the internet in the area, and restrict media reporting. Lack of communication and situational awareness should prevent any reinforcements’ arrival and block transnational terrorist leadership’s ability to provide fighting or escaping instructions to militants. Security forces should conduct a detailed terrain analysis through remote sensing technologies, satellite imagery, and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) to map natural hideouts and potential escape routes to anticipate militants’ movements and plan counter-infiltration measures. India should employ long-term jungle surveillance, thanks to strategically placed cameras and sensors, to maintain continuous situational awareness. India should train local security forces and army regiments in jungle warfare tactics and techniques. Indian intelligence agencies should strengthen local informants’ networks to gather real-time intelligence on militants’ activities and establish community-based networks to encourage residents to share information discreetly. India should innovate its ‘Winning Hearts and Minds’ (WHAM) program to neutralize existing transnational terrorist supporting mechanisms in Kashmir. A parallel implementation of “hard” counterterrorism efforts and “soft” humanitarian support is paramount to reach regional stability.
[1] “Map of Kashmir” by Tejas Vaidya via Google Maps
[2] Anantnag anti-terror operation enters sixth day, The Hindu, September 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/anantnag-anti-terror-operation-enters-sixth-day/article67320779.ece
[3] Operation continues in J&K’s Anantnag to flush out militants, The Hindu, September 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/operation-in-jammu-and-kashmirs-anantnag-enters-fifth-day/article67317678.ece
[4] Anantnag anti-terror operation enters sixth day, The Hindu, September 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/anantnag-anti-terror-operation-enters-sixth-day/article67320779.ece
[5] Operation continues in J&K’s Anantnag to flush out militants, The Hindu, September 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/operation-in-jammu-and-kashmirs-anantnag-enters-fifth-day/article67317678.ece
[6] Anantnag anti-terror operation enters sixth day, The Hindu, September 2023, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/anantnag-anti-terror-operation-enters-sixth-day/article67320779.ece