Alice Cian, Oliver Waters, Yassin Belhaj, Agathe Labadi, Camilla Raffaelli, NORTHCOM
James Raggio, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
December 3, 2024
Incel Pathway to Violence[1]
Introduction
The rise and normalization of misogynistic and far-right ideologies, especially in the digital space, underscores an evolving threat landscape within the US. These ideologies, often propagated by prominent online figures and political leaders, foster environments that can escalate into violence. Incel communities, white supremacist groups, public figures, and uncategorized online users have increasingly spread gender-based hate speech targeting women through memes, slogans, slurs, degrading language, and public demonstrations. The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) assesses that they use digital platforms not only to disseminate harmful ideologies but also to organize and execute acts against feminist movements, LGBTQ+ communities, and racial minorities. Support from figures such as Nick Fuentes and Andrew Tate in spreading such ideologies is particularly concerning as their platforms amplify extremist ideologies, mobilize large communities of followers, and escalate the threat of violence against marginalized groups. Their activities contribute to an atmosphere where harassment and physical attacks on these communities become more likely, pressing the need for countermeasures to mitigate such threats.
Assessments
CTG assesses with HIGH confidence that misogynistic and far-right groups will continue to utilize digital platforms to amplify their ideologies and coordinate attacks. These groups are LIKELY to exploit online anonymity to orchestrate harassment campaigns and physical actions without directly exposing key figures, reducing legal repercussions while maximizing ideological spread. We assess with HIGH confidence that their most frequently employed tactics will include online doxxing, the dissemination of disinformation, and the incitement of followers to perform physical acts of violence, such as assaults at public events. These tactics are chosen due to their low resource requirements and high impact potential, allowing these groups to maintain a persistent threat presence with minimal exposure to leadership.
The misogynistic rhetoric, bolstered by political figures and far-right influencers, will VERY LIKELY lead to an escalation in violence against women and minority groups. Violent actions will VERY LIKELY range from harassment to more severe physical attacks, particularly targeting individuals involved in feminist and LGBTQ+ advocacy. The ultimate goal of disrupting societal norms and promoting patriarchal and white supremacist ideologies remains VERY UNLIKELY to succeed on a broad scale due to societal pushback, law enforcement efforts, and internal disorganization within these groups. Their capacity to cause significant harm and societal disruption at local levels remains a critical concern. Despite extensive digital coordination, it is ALMOST CERTAIN that these groups’ lack of centralized command and the sporadic nature of individual actions will prevent them from executing large-scale, sophisticated, successful operations. If law enforcement’s ability to monitor and infiltrate these groups wanes, there is a ROUGHLY EVEN chance that they could conduct more organized and deadly attacks, leveraging both cyber and physical tactics to greater effect.
Background
While no organized and homogenous misogynist movement advocating for male supremacy and directly targeting women exists, degrading narratives directed at women in the US are gaining momentum both online and offline, with the potential of escalating to concrete acts of violence. Misogynist narratives enjoyed growing popularity before, during, and after the 2024 US Presidential Election. Such narratives include the objectification and inferiority of women, the control of men over women’s decisions and bodies, and motherhood being the sole and most important purpose in women’s lives.
White supremacist groups have distinctly woven misogynistic views into their broader racist agendas. White supremacist groups promote traditional gender roles as the “natural order of things,” with online spaces dominated by misogynist content and calls for subjugation of and violence towards women. Attacks towards non-white, non-heteronormative women are celebrated and encouraged online,[1] and the inferiority of women in general is a recurring theme. The manosphere encompasses different misogynist and male supremacist communities[2] and features prominent social media figures linked to the far-right and white supremacist movements. The most popular are Nick Fuentes, extremist far-right political commentator, internet personality, and founder of the America First Political Action Conference (AFPAC), and Andrew Tate, self-proclaimed misogynist influencer facing charges of rape, human trafficking, and sexual exploitation through an organized crime group.[3] The online misogynist community includes individuals such as Sneako, content creator promoting extremist views and white supremacist ideologies; H. Pearl Davis, podcaster who focuses on men’s rights and promotes traditional gender roles; Matt Walsh, American conservative political commentator who has made numerous misogynistic and anti-feminist comments; and Daryush “Roosh” Valizadeh, pro-rape “pick-up artist”[4] coach promoting violent misogyny and antisemitism.
The Incelosphere, an alternative reality grouping the so-called Involuntary Celibates,[5] is a digital space where community members create and share values, narratives, and rules. Online Incel platforms allow unsatisfied men to share their grievances against romantic and sexual rejection, perceived denial of relationships due to genetics and structural constraints, and perceived inequality of the dating market. Within the Incel online community, violence is increasingly praised, promoted, and accepted as a legitimate means to address frustrations against women, modern feminism, and neoliberalism in general. The Incel reconstruction of reality implies nihilism as the dissatisfaction of involuntary celibates cannot be changed. This nihilism calls for martyrdom, sacrificial violence, suicide, self-harm, and mass murder, increasing the likelihood of a dangerous escalation of thoughts into violent actions.
Conservative estimates suggest that over the past seven years, more than 53 people have been killed and hundreds injured in incidents driven by misogynistic motives.[6] Elliot Rodger’s 2014 Isla Vista massacre, the first official incident of misogynist-motivated violence, led to the death of six people while another 14 reported injuries. He left behind a manifesto of the Incel ideology, justifying his actions by expressing anger towards women for rejecting him, and envy towards sexually active men, viewing his violent acts as retaliation against those he felt had denied him attention and affection.[7] In 2008, Scott Paul Beierle conducted a yoga studio shooting in Tallahassee, killing two women and injuring five others, driven by misogynistic motives documented in his writings.[8] In 2021 Tres Genco was arrested before executing a planned attack, having idolized Rodger and shared his misogynist views.[9]
Misogynist narratives and rhetorics gained noticeable support from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and formal presidency. The normalization of derogatory language and inferiority narratives targeting women by Trump dates back to 2016, when a leaked tape recording dating back to 2005 caught Trump expressing how he can do anything to women, including grabbing them by their genitalia.[10] Several women levied allegations of sexual misconduct against Trump including claims of sexual harassment and sexual assault. Trump denied all accusations, calling the women denouncing him liars.[11] In the lead-up to the 2024 Presidential election, Trump continued his misogynistic claims, stating that he will protect women “whether they like it or not”,[12] implying that women hold no decisional power over themselves. During the vice presidential candidates debate, JD Vance hinted at the fact that only men are supposed to enjoy authority and autonomy.[13] Matt Gaetz, recently appointed as attorney general by Trump, was allegedly engaging with a minor, a claim that emerged amidst a sexual trafficking investigation.[14] Despite his withdrawal from consideration on November 21, 2024, his proposed appointment raises concerns due to the serious nature of the allegations, underlying ongoing issues of misogyny, and potential perceived validation of misogynist attitudes.[15]
The surge in online misogyny after November 6 includes a 663% increase in X’s posts advocating for the repeal of the 19th Amendment, legally guaranteeing the right to vote to women, highlighting the digital backlash against women following the elections. Misogynist slurs directed at Vice President Harris and other Democrat women received more than 64,000 mentions on X, coming from more than 42,000 accounts on Election Day.[16] On November 6, 2024, Fuentes tweeted “Your body, my choice. Forever.” with the comment receiving 95.4 million views as of November 14, 2024.[17] Between November 4 and 6, the use of derogatory language towards women on X increased drastically, with a 4600% increase in the mention of “your body, my choice” and “get back to the kitchen.”[18] The Groyper movement, supported by X accounts affiliated with Nick Fuentes, is highlighted due to its strategic use of internet meme culture to propagate extreme far-right ideologies. These accounts disseminate content that both overtly and covertly incites violence, exemplified by X with sexually suggestive memes portraying the Pepe frog character sexually assaulting women.[19] Other Groyper accounts claimed that a “RAPE SQUAD” was “REPORTING FOR DUTY”, with a picture of German Schutzstaffel Paramilitary soldiers and a reference to “88,”[20] which is used as a substitute for “heil Hitler” in far-right social media spaces.
Intent
The manosphere and associated far-right groups have demonstrated a clear progression along the Pathway to Violence, primarily occupying the space between the Research and Planning, and Preparation stages. These groups exhibit deep-seated grievances fueled by perceived threats to traditional gender and racial hierarchies, intensified by recent political climates and societal shifts toward greater inclusivity.
Grievance: These groups very likely harbor deep-seated grievances against societal shifts towards gender equality and diversity, viewing these changes as direct threats to their perceived societal status. Their public communications almost certainly express intense hostility towards feminists, minorities, and liberal ideologies, portraying themselves as victims of a culture that undermines traditional gender and racial hierarchies. Frustration over the inability to have sexual or sentimental relationships with women likely amplifies underlying societal grievances, catalyzing individual anger towards women as a collective group.
Violent Ideation: These groups likely embrace ideologies that justify and glorify violence as a necessary means to reclaim power and instigate resistance to societal change. This includes the celebration of violent acts against women and minorities, which are often depicted as heroic stands against oppression. These groups will very likely promote patriarchal models and shame people following and inciting different societal systems, or behaviors they consider against traditional beliefs and values. The continuous exposure to communities framing violence as a legitimate tool likely shifts the idea of normality in the minds of exposed individuals, likely allowing them to see the idea of violent acts as something normal and not deviant. The martyrdom and idolatry of figures like Elliot Rodger by certain extremist communities, who view his actions against women as a stand against modern feminism, is likely seen as a form of “canonization” of mass shooters, particularly those targeting ethnic and religious minorities.
Research and Planning: Within the manosphere and far-right movements, figures like Nick Fuentes and Andrew Tate very likely shape operational strategies, utilizing digital platforms, including the War Room Telegram channel,[21] enhancing recruitment and spreading misogynistic and racist ideologies. The strategic deployment of engaging content and precise targeting through social media analytics likely heightens the effectiveness of their campaigns, fostering a deeper connection with specific demographics vulnerable to their ideologies, usually young men facing issues with their relationships with women and idealizing traditional values. The continuous exposure to violent narratives within these groups, very likely enables members to plan and execute real-world violent acts, with online radicalization often transitioning to physical attacks. This meticulous orchestration of content radicalizes individuals and prepares them for actionable violence. Individuals plotting for attacks on women will very likely look into previous attacks and published manifestos to gain knowledge about possible strategies to perpetrate attacks, including locations, time, and weapons of choice. They will likely seek advice on online communities and exchange ideas to gain knowledge from others, likely integrating feedback from the community into their research and furthering the scope of their planning.
Preparation: Members of misogynistic and far-right groups engage in preparation largely through their online platforms, where they share content that promotes and normalizes violent actions against women and minority groups. This content often includes tactical information and narratives that not only reinforce their extremist ideologies but likely provide a blueprint for action. The detailed sharing of violent content within these communities will very likely evolve into actual acts of violence. These groups will very likely post memes and edgy content to enhance recruitment among young men, often seen as an initial path to radicalization.
Probing and Breaching: No collective evidence so far
Attack: No collective evidence so far
Vulnerabilities
Online misogynists, including Incel and Groypers, will likely exploit Trump’s sexist rhetoric in the lead-up to the election as a pretext to harass democrat voting women, who are very likely perceived as an obstacle to the incoming administration's political goals. History shows extremists will likely engage with conspiracy theories claiming that radical feminists will likely attempt to prevent the certification of election results to stop Trump from passing anti-abortion legislation. Misogynists will very likely utilize social media platforms, including encrypted messaging apps, and forums, to coordinate protests in Washington DC against perceived threats from Feminist groups on January 6, 2025. The digital nature of these tools will likely allow groups to operate with relative anonymity and reach a wide audience, likely increasing their potential impact without significant physical resource expenditure.
The normalization of derogatory language and inferiority narratives targeting women both online and in the political sphere will very likely legitimize the use of misogynist rhetorics among the wider public, likely leading to an increase in incidents of violent acts against women, including harassment, sexual violence, and stalking. Domestic violence will very likely increase as abusive men will find approval and justification in the wider anti-feminist narratives. As a result of the political justification of women's inferiority and the belittling of instances of violence against women at the governmental level, female victims of domestic violence will unlikely report instances of domestic abuse due to a loss of trust in the authorities. The perceived lack of seriousness in addressing complaints of domestic violence and the decreasing trust levels will very likely embolden perpetrators and perpetuate a cycle of violence.
Attackers will almost certainly act in a decentralized and unorganized fashion due to the nature of the misogynist movement itself. There is a roughly even chance that they will signal the intention to kill and provide some details about the planned attack on online communities in an attempt to gain approval and fame from the community. Individuals planning to commit misogynist attacks will very likely leave behind some sort of manifesto in the hope of providing an exemplar for future action. The publication of manifestos very likely aims to rationalize their actions and articulate their motivations, very likely influencing others within the community towards similar violent actions, almost certainly perpetuating the cycle of violence within these extremist circles.
Given the idolization of past Incel-related violence attacks, plotters will likely copy the modus operandi[22] of famous misogynist-driven attacks. The idolization of famous Incel attackers will likely lead to the planning of copycat attacks in terms of weapons, locations, and chosen dates. There is a roughly even chance that attacks will happen on the anniversary of past misogynist killings driven by the attempt to replicate exemplary attacks, including May 23 (Isla Vista Attack anniversary). Attackers will likely immolate themselves to the cause and commit suicide right after the attacks, very likely driven by the nihilism that characterizes the Incel movement.
Attacks directed towards women will very likely cause fatalities beyond the immediate target due to the modus operandi which will likely include indiscriminate shootings at locations mostly visited by women such as nail bars, yoga studios, or vehicle-ramming attacks. Violent misogynists will very likely target LGBTQ+ protests, women’s rights, and pro-choice marches and events gathering large crowds of women, such as concerts of feminist and LGBTQ+ singers and bands. They will likely engage followers to carry out harassment or attacks at public events, thus distancing key figures from legal repercussions while maximizing media exposure.
Extremist and far-right groups will very likely use their influence among young boys/men to impact early stages of gender socialization and masculinity norms, likely influencing hate against women and extremist gender social and political views. The normalization of misogynist rhetorics in the public space will very likely reinforce the gender gap, likely inciting extremist views and behaviors from a young age, facilitating further recruitment from misogynistic groups and far-right identification. Women and minorities will likely suffer further stigmatization, sexual objectification, and dehumanization.
The creation of echo chambers and self-reinforcing narratives on social media platforms will likely help the fast spread of misogynist memes and beliefs/values, extremist views, and idolization of past Incel-related violence attacks among youth. There is a roughly even chance that radicalized young males will carry out lone-wolf attacks against educational institutions, likely viewing schools and universities as responsible for the spread of feminist ideas and far-left ideologies. Misogynistic and far-right groups will likely push online radicalized young boys to create local cells and carry out non-violent and violent operations, such as harassment, doxxing, revenge pornography, and humiliation.
Recommendations
Cybersecurity
Law enforcement should monitor extremist recruitment efforts on encrypted platforms and social media to disrupt narratives before they gain traction and prevent radicalization
Individuals affiliated with LGBTQ+, and women’s rights organizations should implement multi-factor authentication (MFA), encrypt sensitive communications, and engage cybersecurity experts to prevent doxxing and data theft.
Facilitate broader intelligence exchange between security agencies to ensure timely response to emerging Incel and far-right threats.
Law enforcement should gain access to online groups sharing misogynistic and violent content to assess the threat environment, gather intelligence on recruitment methods and organizational structures, and monitor activities.
Target Hardening
Women-led public actions, community centers, and female-focused events or spaces should collaborate with law enforcement and security agencies to enhance physical security.
They should adopt access control measures like authentication systems and deploy female personnel to provide reassurance and additional support.
Organizers of high-risk events should ensure security measures, including thorough checks of vehicles and bags, and account for the possibility of unplanned protests or counter-actions.
Law enforcement should conduct regular security assessments to identify vulnerabilities and risks, evaluate security and surveillance measures, and establish emergency response mechanisms, such as hotlines or direct access to police support.
Community Response
Local authorities should educate the public about extremist tactics and warning signs through workplace talks and social media posts, fostering community vigilance and resilience against radicalization.
Law enforcement should establish contact with communities vulnerable to radicalization, including high school-age boys and young adults in economically deprived communities, to improve communication, promote trust, and encourage reporting of grooming incidents without stigma.
Law enforcement should develop accessible systems for citizens to report concerning behavior or potential threats, enabling proactive intervention.
Education
Schools should implement prevention strategies and activities to inform students about misogyny, gender, and sexual violence, and their effects on reducing related violence and its consequences.
Schools should provide health education lessons, teaching young people about healthy emotional and sexual relationships, including consent, setting boundaries, and problematic behaviors.
Schools should create safe spaces to motivate and support young people to speak out about gender divisions, social abuses, and related violence in their schools and communities.
Schools should provide information and training to school personnel and teachers to detect problematic behaviors and rhetoric at school and online.
[1] Image created by CTG Senior Editor
[2] IntelBrief: Women in White Supremacist Online Ecosystems, The Soufan Group, June 2020, https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-women-in-white-supremacist-online-ecosystems/
[3] The ‘Manosphere’, Institute for Strategic Dialogue, October 2020, https://www.isdglobal.org/explainers/the-manosphere-explainer/
[4] Who is Andrew Tate? The self-proclaimed misogynist influencer, BBC, July 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64125045
[5] The ‘pick-up artists’ community dehumanizes women as sexual objects, often legitimating rape based on the claim that women should be sexually available for men at all times, (the threat landscape: Incel and misogynist Violent Extremism, McCain Institute, October 2021, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/incel-and-misogynist-violent-extremism-read-ahead-materials-august-2.pdf)
[6] Individuals who cannot enjoy satisfactory romantic or sexual relations and blame women for their inability
[7] the threat landscape: Incel and misogynist Violent Extremism, McCain Institute, October 2021, https://www.mccaininstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/incel-and-misogynist-violent-extremism-read-ahead-materials-august-2.pdf
[8] Elliot Rodger: How misogynist killer became 'incel hero', BBC, April 2018,
[9] Florida yoga studio shooting: Two killed and four injured, BBC, November 2018,
[10] Highland County man sentenced to more than 6 years in prison for attempting hate crime, United States Attorney Office Southern District of Ohio, February 2024
[11] Trump on Hot Mic: 'When You're a Star ... You Can Do Anything' to Women, NBC, October 7, 2016, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-hot-mic-when-you-re-star-you-can-do-n662116
[12] List of Trump's accusers and their allegations of sexual misconduct, ABC, September 18, 2020 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410
[13] Trump says he would 'protect' women, 'whether the women like it or not', NBC, October 31, 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-protect-women-like-it-or-not-rcna178147
[14] America’s dad vs the manosphere: Walz-Vance debate highlights two versions of masculinity, The Conversation, October 2, 2024 https://theconversation.com/americas-dad-vs-the-manosphere-walz-vance-debate-highlights-two-versions-of-masculinity-240319
[15] Woman testified to House Ethics Committee that Gaetz had sex with her when she was 17, ABC News, November 2024,
[16]Matt Gaetz Withdraws From Consideration for Attorney General, The New York Times, November 21, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/matt-gaetz-withdraws-trump-attorney-general.html
[17] “Your body, my choice”: the rise of “incel culture” under Trump and how women are fighting back with “4B” movement, The Times of India, November 2024 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/your-body-my-choice-the-rise-of-incel-culture-under-trump-and-how-women-are-fighting-back-with-4b-movement/articleshow/115241535.cms
[18] @NickJFuentes, X, November 6, 2024,https://x.com/NickJFuentes/status/1854015641218355621
[19] ISD report details rise in “your body, my choice” and other misogynistic content following the US elections, Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), November 2024 https://www.isdglobal.org/isd-in-the-news/isd-report-details-rise-in-your-body-my-choice-and-other-misogynistic-content-following-the-us-elections/
[20] @groypergreen07, X, November 9, 2024, https://twitter.com/groypergreen07/status/1855068420984774890
[21] @OyashirosTopGuy, X,November6,2024,https://x.com/OyashirosTopGuy/status/1854156491164405918
[22] The War Room is a network of Telegram networks run by Andrew Tate, BBC, August 31, 2023, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66604827
[23] Distinctive patterns of behaviour or combinations of materials that recur in multiple crimes and operate like a signature, Oxford Reference, https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100203767#:~:text=Latin%20for%20'manner%20of%20working,habitually%20works%20in%20that%20way