COUNTER THREAT CENTER

Our Mission:
Detect, Deter, Defeat Terrorism

Our objective is to protect you, your organization, and your personnel against acts of terrorism and critical threats. CTG professionals develop customized services and solutions that will help you Detect, Deter, and Defeat terrorism or other threats that target you, your people, or your assets’ physical security.

THREAT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: ISLAMIST TERRORIST GROUPS AND SEPARATISTS ARE ESCALATING THEIR ATTACKS IN MALI, VERY LIKELY PRIORITIZING COORDINATED STRIKES AGAINST MILITARY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Cora Jordan, Bhavya Jain, Antonio De Rosa, Blaise Liess II, Insa Reblin, Ludovica Leccese, Amelia Bell, Mackenzie LaCombe AFRICOM Team Elena Alice Rossetti, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 29, 2026 African Soldiers[1] BLUF Militant groups such as terrorist group al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the rebel separatist group Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) are escalating their campaigns in Mali by shifting from localized low-impact attac

THE HARTBEESPOORT DAM IN CRISIS: ECOLOGICAL DETERIORATION AND INSTITUTIONAL FAILURE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Cristiana Harless, Ilias Tzanetoulakos, Martina Guerrero, OSINT-RDT Team Alessandro Portolano, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 26, 2026 Hartbeespoort Dam, Hartbeespoort, North West Province of South Africa[1] Key judgments Persistent pollution of the Hartbeespoort Dam mainly stems from repeated institutional and political failures. Unenforced legislation, misguided interventions, and fragmented decisionmaking has led to decades of neglect despite

MEXICAN POLICE OFFICERS ALLEGEDLY COLLABORATED WITH CJNG USING ENCRYPTED MESSAGING, AND THE MEXICAN SSC WARNED OF CRIMINAL GROUPS USING FAKE JOB OFFERS ON SOCIAL MEDIA TO TARGET VULNERABLE PEOPLE

April 14-20, 2026 | Issue 16 - NORTHCOM Team Christian Jackson, Dominic Perfetti, Julia Ruiz Redel, Michela Sereno, Noah Clarke, Matthew George, Sharon Preci, Aristide Devevey, Jacob Robison Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor Encrypted Communication[1] Date: April 16, 2026 Location: Manzanillo, Colima State, Mexico Parties involved: Mexico; government; institutions; authorities; law enforcement; police officers; uncompromised officers; subvers

FLASH ALERT: WARNING TO NIGERIAN CIVILIANS, BOKO HARAM FACTION ISSUES 72-HOUR ULTIMATUM TO NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT TO MEET DEMANDS OR EXECUTE 416 CAPTIVES

Sasha Sánchez, Kendall McElwee, Alessandro Portolano, Insa Reblin, Michela Sereno, AFRICOM/CENTCOM Teams Elena Alice Rossetti, Lizel Klaasen, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 21, 2026 African Insurgents[1] The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to civilians in northeastern Nigeria, Nigerian government officials, Borno South Youth Alliance (BOSYA) following a reported ultimatum issued by a Boko Haram faction on April 19, 2026. The group released a v

REPORTEDLY, RUSSIA PLANNED TO INCREASE ITS UNMANNED SYSTEMS FORCES BY 2026, AND ITALY AND GERMANY LAUNCHED AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE TRANSALPINE OIL PIPELINE DISRUPTION AS POSSIBLE SABOTAGE

April 9-15, 2026 | Issue 15 - EUCOM Team Nicola Bonsegna, Jaydn Burgin, Sofía Vilas, Fleur Van Gorp Alexia Andrica, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor Drone [1] Date : April 9, 2026 Location : Russia Parties involved : Russia; Unmanned Systems Forces (USF); Russian troops; personnel; Ukraine; Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi; Western allies The event : According to Syrskyi, Russia plans to expand its USF to approximately 165,500 personnel

THREAT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: IRAN’S AI-DRIVEN INFLUENCE AND CYBER OPERATIONS ARE EXPANDING THE BATTLESPACE INTO US PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND CRITICAL SYSTEMS

Cora Jordan, Bhavya Jain, Antonio De Rosa, Maxime de Crop, Giovanni Lamberti, Amelia Bell, Mackenzie LaCombe, Alexandra Valdez, Sasha Sánchez, Blaise Liess II, Insa Reblin, Ludovica Leccese CENTCOM Team Elizabeth Fignar, Editor; Jennifer Radlinsky, Senior Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 9, 2026 Anonymous User [1] BLUF Iran is escalating its warfare strategy against the US from traditional military signaling and proxy activity toward a technologically integrated c

IN HAITI, CHADIAN TROOPS JOINED A UN ANTI-GANG MISSION, AND IN BRAZIL, A UN RAPPORTEUR PRAISED MIGRATION POLICY BUT URGED COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW

April 2-8, 2026 | Issue 14 - SOUTHCOM Team Michela Sereno, Julia Ruiz Redel, Dominic Perfetti, Christian Jackson, Sharon Preci, Matthew George, Noah Clarke Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor Haiti Gang Influence Map: Overview of Port-au-Prince Neighborhoods [1] Date : April 1, 2026 Location : Port-Au-Prince, Haiti Parties involved : Haiti; Haitian government; Haitian National Police; authorities; emergency services; healthcare and emergency

FLASH ALERT: WARNING TO US UNIVERSITIES AND ASSOCIATED INSTITUTIONS AFTER IRGC COMMUNICATED A LIST OF POTENTIAL RETALIATION TARGETS

Sasha Sánchez, Cora Jordan, Amelia Bell, Alexandra Valdez, Ilias Tzanetoulakos, Kendall McElwee, Lizel Klaasen, AFRICOM, CENTCOM Teams Alexia Andrica, Devendra Mahto, Elena Alice Rossetti, Editors; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 7, 2026 US-linked Universities in the Middle East [ 1] The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to the university personnel and students of the campuses in Qatar’s Education City (Northwestern University, Georgetown University, C

IN INDIA, DURING AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN, BJP AND TMC SUPPORTERS CLASHED, AND IN AUSTRALIA, POLICE OFFICERS FATALLY SHOT A RUNAWAY SOVEREIGN CITIZENS’ MEMBER

March 26 - April 1, 2026 | Issue 13 - PACOM Team Lucy Gibson, Agathe Labadi, Balraj Rana, Brendan Malcarne, Nimaya Premachandra Devendra Mahto, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor Political Rally in India [1] Date : March 26, 2026 Location : South 24 Parganas District, West Bengal State, India Parties involved : Election Commission of India (ECI); Hindu nationalist political party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); BJP supporters; Bengali nationalist political party Tri

THREAT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: EUROPEAN FRAGMENTATION OVER AIRSPACE AND BASE ACCESS LIKELY TO IMPACT US MILITARY LOGISTIC CAPABILITIES

Chiara Michieli, Nicola Bonsegna, Jaydn Burgin, Fleur Van Gorp, Leon Kille EUROPE Team Alexia Andrica, Editor; Jennifer Radlinsky, Senior Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor April 5, 2026 US Military Transport Aircraft Overflying Continental Europe [1] BLUF Austria [2] and Switzerland [3] have restricted the overflight and base access of US military aircraft involved in the war in the Middle East, as did NATO members Italy, Spain, and France. [4] Restrictions on US access c

PSA NICARAGUA PART 2: THE ORTEGA-MURILLO GOVERNMENT’S CONTINUED REPRESSION OF POLITICAL DISSENT; HOST COUNTRIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCED SECURITY MEASURES TO PROTECT EXILED NICARAGUANS

Khushi Salian, Lorenzo Calavaro, Rebecca Davis, Hermione Goux, Gehad Ahmed, WATCH/GSOC Team Lizel Klaasen, Alessandro Portolano, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor April 2, 2026 Nicaragua [1] Introduction Following the report focused on restricted press freedom and repression of journalism in Nicaragua, this report examines the broader mechanisms the government employs to suppress political dissent domestically and abroad. Under the leadership of Daniel Ortega and Ro

THE EFFECTS OF ILLEGAL GOLD MINING IN THE YAPACANA NATIONAL PARK (CERRO), VENEZUELA

Cristiana Harless, Kendall McElwee, Lavinia Ansalone, Martina Guerrero, OSINT-RDT Team Alessandro Portolano, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor March 30, 2026 Cerro Yapacana, Amazonas State, Venezuela [1] Key judgments The continuation of illegal gold mining will likely lead to prolonged environmental destruction, as well as human rights abuses against local and Indigenous populations. Criminals control illegal gold mining in Venezuela’s Amazonas state, undermining the gove

PSA NICARAGUA PART 1: HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS CALL FOR INTERVENTION AMID HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSE AGAINST JOURNALISTS; JOINT INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION REQUIRED TO BUILD DIGITAL RESILIENCE

Khushi Salian, Lorenzo Calavaro, Rebecca Davis, Hermione Goux, Gehad Ahmed, Jared Carvente, Andrew Britland, Camilla Montemarano, WATCH/GSOC Team Alessandro Portolano, Lizel Klaasen Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor March 29, 2026 Nicaraguan Journalists [1] Introduction In March 2026, over 20 humanitarian organizations called on UN member states to press the authoritarian regime of Daniel Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, to answer for human rights violations ag

MEXICAN NAVAL AUTHORITIES CARRIED OUT A DEADLY RAID AGAINST LOS MAYOS, AND THE US DEPLOYED ICE AGENTS TO AIRPORTS TO HELP DURING STAFFING SHORTAGES

March 19-25, 2026 | Issue 12 - NORTHCOM Team Michela Sereno, Julia Ruiz Redel, Dominic Perfetti, Christian Jackson, Sharon Preci, Matthew George, Noah Clarke Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor Military Unit Conducting a Raid [1] Date : March 19, 2026 Location : Culiacan, Sinaloa State, Mexico Parties involved : Mexico; Mexican government; government bodies; Mexican military; Naval authorities; authorities; law enforcement; armed militant orga

THREAT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: US ACCELERATES INTEGRATION OF PRIVATE AI INTO CLASSIFIED MILITARY NETWORKS. RAPID ADOPTION WILL VERY LIKELY ESCALATE OPERATIONAL AND SECURITY RISKS ACROSS DEFENSE SYSTEMS

Giovanni Lamberti, Christian Jackson, Noah Clarke, Sharon Preci, Matthew George, Julia Ruiz Redel, Aristide Devevey, Michela Sereno, Dominic Perfetti; NORTHCOM Team Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor March 18, 2026 Military Strategy in the Age of AI [1] The US Department of War (DoW) accelerated the integration of privately developed AI systems into classified military and intelligence networks as part of its strategy to become an “AI-first” war

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